Luke Raley's hits prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, with overs hitting just 43.5% of the time across 23 games. His 0.83 average sits 0.32 hits below the typical 1.15 line, generating a profitable 7.9% ROI on unders while overs lose 17.0%. This trend leans under with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
Luke Raley's home hitting struggles reflect a deeper issue with his approach in familiar surroundings. The 0.83 hits per game average against a 1.15 line creates meaningful value, as books appear to overestimate his home production. The 43.5% over rate indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern across nearly two dozen games. Raley's profile suggests a hitter who may press too much at home, trying to showcase for the home crowd rather than staying within his natural swing. The -17.0% ROI on overs tells the story of a market inefficiency that hasn't corrected itself. His current streak of one under aligns with the broader pattern, coming off a longest under streak of four games. The absence of meaningful splits data actually strengthens the case, as it suggests this home underperformance isn't situational but fundamental to his approach. With the longest over streak reaching just two games, Raley rarely sustains hot hitting at home. The 10-13 over-under record shows consistency in falling short of inflated expectations, making this a reliable fade spot when the line sits around that 1.15 threshold.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Raley's home hitting props offer steady value with the line consistently set too high relative to his 0.83 average production. The 7.9% ROI on unders demonstrates sustainable profit potential, while the 43.5% over rate provides a meaningful edge. Target this when the line is 1.0 or higher, but avoid if books adjust to 0.5 where value disappears.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Luke Raley's Hits prop record home games?
Luke Raley's hits prop record in home games stands at 10-13-0 over-under, meaning overs hit 43.5% of the time across 23 games. This translates to unders cashing 56.5% of the time, creating a clear edge for under bettors in home situations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Luke Raley Hits home games?
Bet under on Luke Raley's hits props at home. His 0.83 average sits well below typical 1.15 lines, generating 7.9% ROI on unders while overs lose 17.0%. This represents a sustainable edge when the line is 1.0 or higher.
What's Luke Raley's average Hits home games?
Luke Raley averages 0.83 hits per game at home compared to the typical 1.15 line, creating a significant 0.32-hit deficit. This gap between production and market expectations drives the consistent value on under bets in home situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Luke Raley hits unders when he's at home and the line is set at 1.0 or higher. Avoid when books adjust to 0.5 where value disappears. His home struggles appear most pronounced regardless of opponent strength or game situation.