Luis Robert Jr.'s total bases prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity, going under in 72.7% of games (16-6 record). With an average of just 1.41 total bases against a typical 2.5 line, Robert consistently falls short by over a full base per game at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Robert's struggles in Chicago's home environment. His 1.41 average total bases represents a massive -1.1 differential from standard pricing, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home park limitations. The 38.8% ROI on unders demonstrates consistent market inefficiency, while the brutal -47.9% ROI on overs shows how punishing backing Robert at home can be. This isn't just bad luck—Robert's current streak includes five consecutive unders, part of a broader pattern where he's managed just six overs in 22 home contests. The White Sox's offensive struggles compound Robert's individual issues, as poor lineup protection and limited run-scoring opportunities reduce his chances for multiple extra-base hits. Guaranteed Rate Field's dimensions don't particularly favor power hitters, and Robert's approach seems poorly suited to maximizing total bases in this environment. The consistency of this trend—spanning the entire 2024 season—suggests fundamental issues rather than temporary regression. Robert's home total bases prop has become one of the most reliable under bets in baseball, with the market slow to catch up to his consistent underperformance in Chicago.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Robert's 72.7% under rate at home isn't noise—it's a systematic edge the market hasn't corrected. The -1.1 differential from his average to the line is enormous in baseball terms, representing nearly a full base of value per game. Target this prop when Robert faces quality pitching or in day games, where his struggles are most pronounced. The main risk is a random multi-hit explosion, but the data strongly favors continued underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Luis Robert Jr.'s Total Bases prop record home games?
Luis Robert Jr. has gone under his total bases prop in 16 of 22 home games (72.7% under rate) with a 6-16 over/under record. This represents one of the most consistent under trends for any regular player in 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Luis Robert Jr. Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Luis Robert Jr.'s total bases props at home games. His 1.41 average against typical 2.5 lines offers consistent value, with unders providing 38.8% ROI compared to devastating -47.9% losses on overs.
What's Luis Robert Jr.'s average Total Bases home games?
Luis Robert Jr. averages 1.41 total bases in home games, which is 1.1 bases below the standard 2.5 line. This massive differential represents nearly a full base of value per game when betting unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robert's total bases unders during home day games against quality starting pitching. His struggles are most pronounced in these conditions, and the consistent 72.7% under rate provides the best risk-adjusted returns.