Luis Castillo has hit the over on his strikeout props 60% of the time across 20 games, generating a solid +14.6% ROI for over bettors. His 5.95 average against a 5.85 line creates a small but consistent edge. The data suggests a lean over approach.
Expert Analysis
Castillo's strikeout prop performance reveals a pitcher consistently undervalued by oddsmakers. His 5.95 average against the typical 5.85 line represents genuine value, not random variance. The 60% over rate paired with positive ROI indicates sustainable edge rather than short-term luck. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency - while Castillo may not be an elite strikeout artist, he's reliable enough to exceed modest expectations. The current two-game under streak actually presents opportunity, as his longest under streak maxes at just two games compared to six-game over runs. This suggests mean reversion favors the over. The lack of extreme volatility in his numbers points to a pitcher whose stuff translates to predictable strikeout production. Oddsmakers appear to be pricing Castillo conservatively, perhaps influenced by his reputation as more of a groundball pitcher than a swing-and-miss specialist. However, his actual production tells a different story. The positive differential between his average and the line, combined with the strong ROI, indicates this isn't a mirage. Castillo's ability to rack up strikeouts may be underappreciated, creating a systematic advantage for disciplined over bettors who recognize the pattern.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% hit rate combined with +14.6% ROI over 20 games establishes a clear statistical edge. Castillo consistently outperforms his modest strikeout lines, and the current two-game under streak aligns perfectly with his historical pattern of bouncing back quickly. Target overs when the line sits at 5.5 or 6.0, as his 5.95 average provides the best value at these numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-25 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Luis Castillo's Strikeouts prop record all games?
Luis Castillo's strikeout prop record stands at 12-8-0 over/under across 20 games, hitting the over 60% of the time. This translates to a profitable +14.6% ROI for over bettors while under bettors face a -23.6% loss rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Luis Castillo Strikeouts all games?
Bet the over on Luis Castillo's strikeout props. His 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI over 20 games establish a clear edge. The current two-game under streak actually presents ideal entry timing for over bets.
What's Luis Castillo's average Strikeouts all games?
Luis Castillo averages 5.95 strikeouts per game against a typical line of 5.85. This +0.1 differential may seem small, but it's created consistent value for over bettors across his 20-game sample size.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Luis Castillo strikeout overs after brief under streaks, as his maximum under run is just two games. Focus on games where the line is set at 5.5 or 6.0 to maximize value from his 5.95 average.