Leody Taveras has delivered a perfect 0-10-0 over/under record on his hits prop over his last 10 games, averaging just 0.7 hits against a 1.9 line. This represents a catastrophic -1.2 differential that's produced +90.9% ROI on unders. Strong lean under with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
Taveras's complete inability to reach his hits total represents one of the most extreme prop trends we've tracked, with his 0.7 average falling a staggering 63% below the 1.9 line. This isn't merely cold hitting—it suggests fundamental issues with his approach or role that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for. The consistency of this underperformance across 10 consecutive games indicates systemic problems rather than variance. When a player fails to hit their prop in every single opportunity over nearly three weeks of action, it signals either a dramatic decline in skill, reduced playing time, or unfavorable lineup positioning that's being overlooked by the market. The -1.2 differential is so severe that even significant regression toward the mean would still favor unders. However, the perfect 10-game streak does raise concerns about potential overcorrection by books, though the sample shows no signs of the trend weakening. Taveras's struggles appear deeply rooted, making this one of the rare situations where riding the trend makes mathematical sense despite the extended streak.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.7 average against a 1.9 line creates substantial value despite the perfect streak raising regression concerns. Taveras's hitting struggles appear systematic rather than variance-based, supported by the consistent underperformance across all 10 games. The primary risk is oddsmaker adjustment, but until the line drops significantly below 1.5, unders maintain edge in this extreme trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Leody Taveras's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Taveras has gone 0-10-0 on his hits over/under in his last 10 games, failing to reach the total in every single opportunity. His 0.7 hits per game average represents a perfect under streak with -100% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Leody Taveras Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Taveras hits props. The 0.7 average versus 1.9 line creates a -1.2 differential that's too large to ignore, even with regression concerns from the perfect 10-game under streak.
What's Leody Taveras's average Hits last 10 games?
Taveras is averaging 0.7 hits over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.9 line, creating a massive -1.2 differential. This 63% shortfall represents one of the largest gaps we've tracked.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Taveras hits unders when the line remains at 1.5 or higher, as his 0.7 average provides significant cushion. Avoid when books adjust below 1.0, as that eliminates the mathematical edge from this trend.