Lawrence Butler's Total Bases prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 31.2% of overs across 16 games with a devastating -40.3% ROI on over bets. Currently riding a four-game under streak, Butler averages 1.31 total bases against a 1.38 line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Butler's home struggles with Total Bases props stem from a combination of pressing in familiar surroundings and potentially inflated lines based on his road performance. The 31.2% over rate isn't just poor—it's systematically exploitable, suggesting the market hasn't properly adjusted to his home park tendencies. The -0.1 differential between his 1.31 average and the typical 1.38 line might seem minimal, but it's significant when betting unders consistently. His current four-game under streak represents his longest of the sample, indicating this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. The Oakland Coliseum's expansive foul territory and pitcher-friendly dimensions likely contribute to reduced offensive output, particularly for a young player still adjusting to major league pitching. Butler's home Total Bases props appear to be priced on potential rather than performance, creating a systematic edge for under bettors. The lack of any meaningful over streaks (longest is just one game) suggests this trend has staying power through the remainder of the season.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Butler's 31.2% over rate at home combined with the +31.2% ROI on under bets creates a compelling systematic edge. The four-game under streak and consistent -0.1 differential indicate the market hasn't properly adjusted to his home struggles. Target this prop when the line sits at 1.5 total bases, as Butler's 1.31 home average provides maximum value. The primary risk is a breakout performance, but the data suggests betting unders consistently until the market corrects.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lawrence Butler's Total Bases prop record home games?
Butler's Total Bases prop record at home is 5-11-0 over/under, hitting just 31.2% of overs across 16 games. Over bettors have lost money at a -40.3% ROI rate, while under bettors have profited at +31.2% ROI, making this one of the more lopsided home trends available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lawrence Butler Total Bases home games?
Bet the UNDER on Butler's Total Bases at home with high confidence. The 31.2% over rate and +31.2% under ROI create a systematic edge that the market hasn't corrected. His current four-game under streak and consistent underperformance versus the line support continued under betting.
What's Lawrence Butler's average Total Bases home games?
Butler averages 1.31 total bases in home games, compared to the typical 1.38 line set by sportsbooks. This -0.1 differential consistently favors under bettors, as he's falling short of expectations in 68.8% of his home appearances this season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Butler's Total Bases unders at home when the line is set at 1.5, maximizing the edge from his 1.31 average. Avoid when he faces particularly weak pitching or in high-scoring game environments, but the systematic home underperformance makes most situations profitable for under bets.