Lawrence Butler's total bases props present a clear under opportunity with just 34.4% overs across 32 games. His 1.56 average falls 0.1 bases below typical lines, generating +25.3% ROI on unders while overs hemorrhage -34.4%. The data strongly favors backing Butler to stay under his total bases number.
Expert Analysis
Lawrence Butler's total bases profile reveals a systematic underperformance that creates consistent betting value. His 11-21 over/under record isn't random variance—it reflects a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and Butler's actual production capabilities. The -0.1 differential between his 1.56 average and standard 1.66 lines might seem minimal, but it's statistically significant over 32 games. Butler's power limitations become evident when examining his inability to consistently reach multi-base totals, with his current three-game under streak extending what has been a dominant pattern. The Athletics' offensive struggles and Butler's role within that context compound the issue, as he often lacks the run-scoring opportunities that typically inflate total bases numbers. Most concerning for over bettors is the persistence of this trend—Butler has managed just one two-game over streak all season, suggesting his ceiling is genuinely capped. The -34.4% ROI on overs represents substantial market inefficiency, likely driven by casual bettors overvaluing Butler's occasional power displays while ignoring his consistent singles-heavy approach. This isn't a player trending toward regression; it's a player whose true talent level the market consistently overestimates.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Butler's 34.4% over rate and -0.1 average differential create a sustainable edge that has already delivered +25.3% ROI on unders. Target this prop when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, particularly in games where Oakland faces quality pitching. The primary risk is a rare multi-hit performance with extra-base power, but Butler's track record suggests these outliers are infrequent enough to maintain long-term profitability on the under side.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lawrence Butler's Total Bases prop record all games?
Lawrence Butler's total bases prop record stands at 11-21 over/under across 32 games, translating to just 34.4% overs. This represents a clear pattern of underperformance against market expectations, with unders hitting at a 65.6% clip throughout the sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lawrence Butler Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Lawrence Butler's total bases props. His 34.4% over rate and +25.3% ROI on unders create a high-confidence edge. The data shows consistent underperformance against lines, making the under side the clear value play in most situations.
What's Lawrence Butler's average Total Bases all games?
Lawrence Butler averages 1.56 total bases per game compared to typical lines around 1.66, creating a -0.1 differential. This gap might seem small but represents meaningful value over larger sample sizes, contributing to the strong under performance we've observed.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Butler's total bases unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, especially against quality pitching staffs. His three-game under streak and season-long 66% under rate suggest consistent opportunities, particularly when Oakland faces teams that limit offensive production.