Lawrence Butler's home run props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% over the last 10 games with a devastating -61.8% ROI on overs. Butler has averaged only 0.2 home runs against a typical 0.5 line, creating a clear -0.3 differential that screams systematic underperformance.
Expert Analysis
Butler's power drought represents a classic case of bookmaker lag, where lines haven't fully adjusted to a player's declining production. The 0.2 home run average against 0.5 lines suggests Butler is being overvalued consistently, likely due to his earlier season performance or general reputation. The 20% over rate across 10 games isn't random variance—it's a pattern that reflects real changes in Butler's approach or circumstances. The current three-game under streak aligns with the broader trend, indicating sustained struggles rather than temporary cold luck. What makes this particularly exploitable is the consistency—Butler hasn't shown any signs of breaking out of this power slump, with his longest over streak being just one game. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that's been slow to recognize Butler's diminished home run production. This type of systematic mispricing typically persists until books make significant line adjustments or Butler shows concrete signs of power resurgence. The 52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates how profitable this fade has been for sharp bettors who recognized the trend early.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Butler's 0.2 home run average creates a significant edge against standard 0.5 lines, though the small 10-game sample prevents higher conviction. Target unders when Butler faces quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly ballparks to maximize the edge. The primary risk is regression to his seasonal mean, but the consistency of this underperformance suggests the trend has staying power through the remainder of the season.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lawrence Butler's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Butler has gone 2-8-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of his over bets. He's averaged only 0.2 home runs per game during this stretch, well below typical 0.5 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lawrence Butler Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet under on Butler's home run props. The 20% over rate and -0.3 differential from his 0.2 average versus 0.5 lines creates a clear edge, supported by strong 52.7% ROI on under bets.
What's Lawrence Butler's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Butler has averaged 0.2 home runs over his last 10 games, creating a significant -0.3 differential against standard 0.5 lines. This underperformance has been consistent, not just bad luck over a small sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Butler home run unders against quality starting pitching and in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His current power drought makes him most vulnerable when facing above-average opponents in less favorable hitting environments.