Lawrence Butler presents one of the most reliable home run unders in baseball, posting just 2 overs in 17 home games (11.8% over rate). His 0.12 home runs per game average sits 0.44 below typical lines, creating massive value on under bets with +68.5% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Butler's home run struggles at the Coliseum represent a perfect storm of unfavorable conditions. The Athletics' cavernous home ballpark ranks among the most pitcher-friendly environments in baseball, with its expansive foul territory and cool evening temperatures suppressing offensive numbers. Butler's power profile suggests he needs ideal conditions to clear the fence consistently, making the Coliseum's dimensions particularly punishing for his swing. The sample size of 17 games provides solid statistical foundation, especially given the consistency of results. Butler has managed just 2 home runs total in these contests, with his longest over streak reaching only 1 game compared to a 7-game under streak. This isn't merely bad luck but rather a systematic mismatch between player and environment. The -77.5% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't fully adjusted to Butler's home park disadvantage. While regression toward league averages is always possible, the underlying factors creating this trend remain constant. Butler's swing mechanics and the Coliseum's dimensions aren't changing, suggesting this edge has staying power through the remainder of his Oakland tenure.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Butler's home run production at the Coliseum represents a systematic edge rather than temporary variance. Target under bets when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, particularly during day games when marine layer effects are strongest. The primary risk involves Butler potentially adjusting his approach or benefiting from unusually favorable weather conditions, but the underlying park factors make this a premium fade opportunity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lawrence Butler's Home Runs prop record home games?
Butler is 2-15-0 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 11.8% of over bets. He's averaged only 0.12 home runs per game at the Coliseum across 17 contests, managing just 2 total homers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lawrence Butler Home Runs home games?
Bet UNDER on Butler's home run props at home games. The 11.8% over rate and +68.5% under ROI make this one of baseball's most reliable fade opportunities when lines are 0.5 or higher.
What's Lawrence Butler's average Home Runs home games?
Butler averages 0.12 home runs per home game, sitting 0.44 below typical betting lines around 0.56. This massive differential creates consistent value on under bets throughout his home schedule at Oakland.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Butler home run unders during day games when marine layer effects are strongest at the Coliseum. Lines of 0.5 or higher provide optimal value given his 0.12 home average.