Lawrence Butler presents one of the season's most reliable under opportunities, connecting on just 15.2% of home run overs with a massive -0.4 differential from the betting line. His 5-28-0 record and 62.0% under ROI make this a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Butler's home run struggles stem from fundamental power deficiencies that betting lines haven't properly adjusted for. His 0.15 home runs per game average sits dramatically below the typical 0.53 line, suggesting oddsmakers are overvaluing his power potential based on limited sample size optimism. The Oakland Athletics outfielder has managed just five home runs across 33 tracked games, with his longest over streak capping at a mere single game compared to a telling nine-game under run. This isn't variance—it's a systematic mismatch between perception and production. Butler's current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern of failing to reach inflated power expectations. The 71.1% loss rate on overs indicates sharp money has likely identified this edge, while the consistent under performance suggests Butler lacks the raw power tools to justify standard home run lines. His profile screams contact hitter rather than power threat, yet books continue setting lines as if he possesses legitimate pop. The Athletics' offensive environment and Butler's approach at the plate create a perfect storm for continued under success, making this trend highly sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Butler's 15.2% over rate and -0.4 line differential create a sustainable edge that books haven't corrected. The ideal spot comes when lines sit at 0.5, maximizing the gap between his true power output and market expectations. Main risk involves potential lineup changes or a dramatic swing adjustment, but his consistent contact-over-power approach suggests this trend continues.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Lawrence Butler props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lawrence Butler's Home Runs prop record all games?
Lawrence Butler's home run prop record stands at 5-28-0 over/under across 33 games, hitting just 15.2% of overs. This represents one of the season's most lopsided player prop trends with clear under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lawrence Butler Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Lawrence Butler's home run props. His 15.2% over rate and -0.4 differential from betting lines create consistent value, backed by a 62.0% under ROI that demonstrates market inefficiency.
What's Lawrence Butler's average Home Runs all games?
Butler averages 0.15 home runs per game compared to typical 0.53 betting lines, creating a massive -0.4 differential. This gap between production and market expectation drives the consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Butler home run unders when lines sit at 0.5, maximizing the value gap. Avoid during potential lineup changes or against extreme pitcher's parks where lines might drop below his actual output level.