Lars Nootbaar's total bases prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 32.9% overs across 70 games. His 1.41 average falls 0.7 bases short of typical 2.11 lines, generating +28.2% ROI on unders. The Cardinals outfielder's contact-oriented approach creates consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Nootbaar's total bases struggles stem from his profile as a patient, contact-first hitter who lacks the power upside to consistently exceed inflated lines. His 1.41 average against 2.11 lines reveals a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and reality. The 20-game under streak represents the longest in our sample, demonstrating remarkable consistency in falling short of projections. This isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance driven by his approach. Nootbaar's plate discipline leads to walks that don't count toward total bases, while his gap-to-gap swing produces singles and doubles rather than the extra-base hits needed to clear higher lines. The Cardinals' offensive struggles compound this issue, limiting RBI opportunities and forcing Nootbaar into more defensive at-bats. His current three-game under streak aligns with season-long patterns, suggesting books haven't adequately adjusted lines downward. The -37.3% over ROI indicates severe market inefficiency, while the 67.1% under rate shows remarkable consistency. Regression concerns are minimal given the sample size and underlying skill set that favors contact over power.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Nootbaar's systematic underperformance against total bases lines creates sustainable value, particularly when lines exceed 2.0. His patient approach and gap power profile consistently fall short of market expectations. The primary risk involves positive regression from his worst stretches, but his underlying skills support continued under performance against inflated projections.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lars Nootbaar's Total Bases prop record all games?
Nootbaar's total bases record shows 23 overs and 47 unders across 70 games, hitting just 32.9% of over bets. He averages 1.41 total bases per game while typical lines sit around 2.11, creating a significant 0.7-base deficit that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lars Nootbaar Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Nootbaar's total bases props, especially when lines exceed 2.0. His patient, contact-oriented approach consistently falls short of market expectations, generating +28.2% ROI on unders. The 67.1% under rate across 70 games demonstrates sustainable edge against inflated projections.
What's Lars Nootbaar's average Total Bases all games?
Nootbaar averages 1.41 total bases per game across our 70-game sample, falling 0.7 bases short of typical 2.11 lines. This significant gap between performance and expectations creates the foundation for profitable under betting, particularly on higher-set totals.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nootbaar total bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher, especially during his current form. His contact-first profile and the Cardinals' offensive struggles create ideal conditions for under performance. Avoid when lines drop to 1.5 or below.