Lars Nootbaar's home run props present one of the sharpest under edges in MLB, hitting just 11.1% overs across 72 games with an 8-64-0 record. His 0.11 average sits 0.4 home runs below typical lines, generating massive 69.7% ROI on unders. This is a clear systematic under play.
Expert Analysis
Nootbaar's home run futility represents a fundamental mismatch between perception and production. Averaging just 0.11 home runs per game against lines typically set around 0.5, he's demonstrating the classic profile of a contact hitter miscast as a power threat. The 20-game under streak within this sample reveals how consistently overvalued his pop remains by oddsmakers. His 11.1% over rate isn't just bad luck—it reflects genuine limitations in raw power output that the market continues to misprize. The -78.8% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors chasing name recognition over production reality. What makes this trend particularly reliable is its consistency across the entire sample period, suggesting this isn't a slump but rather Nootbaar's true talent level. The Cardinals outfielder likely benefits from Busch Stadium's reputation and lineup protection in pricing, but his actual swing mechanics and exit velocity profiles don't support regular home run production. This creates a persistent edge where books consistently inflate his power expectations while his actual output remains stubbornly low.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Nootbaar's 0.11 home run average creates a massive 0.4 differential against typical lines, making this one of the most reliable under bets in baseball. The 69.7% under ROI across 72 games demonstrates sustainable edge, not variance. Bet unders in any matchup where the line sits 0.5 or higher, with particular emphasis when facing quality pitching that further suppresses his limited power upside.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lars Nootbaar's Home Runs prop record all games?
Nootbaar's home run props show an 8-64-0 record across 72 games, hitting just 11.1% overs. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends in MLB, with unders cashing at nearly a 9-to-1 rate over the sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lars Nootbaar Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Nootbaar's home run props with high confidence. His 0.11 average creates a 0.4 differential below typical lines, generating 69.7% ROI on unders. This edge appears sustainable given his contact-first profile and consistent underproduction.
What's Lars Nootbaar's average Home Runs all games?
Nootbaar averages 0.11 home runs per game, sitting 0.4 below the typical 0.51 line. This massive differential explains the 69.7% under ROI, as his actual power output consistently falls short of market expectations set by oddsmakers.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Nootbaar home run unders when lines are 0.5 or higher, particularly against quality pitching. His consistent underproduction makes any elevated line profitable, with the 20-game under streak showing this edge persists across varying matchups and conditions.