Lars Nootbaar's hits props present a clear under opportunity with just 44.4% overs across 72 games. His 0.88 hits per game average falls 0.26 short of the typical 1.14 line, generating +6.1% ROI on unders. The Cardinals outfielder's current four-game under streak aligns with this persistent pattern.
Expert Analysis
Nootbaar's hitting props reveal a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and actual production. Averaging 0.88 hits per game against a 1.14 line creates consistent value on the under, evidenced by the positive 6.1% ROI. This isn't merely a cold streak—it's a 72-game sample spanning nearly two full seasons that demonstrates books consistently overvaluing his contact ability. The -15.2% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors chasing a player whose ceiling rarely materializes. Nootbaar's profile suggests a patient hitter who works counts but lacks the consistent barrel contact to exceed inflated lines regularly. His longest under streak of 12 games shows how sustained these dry spells can be, while even his longest over streak of six games pales in comparison. The current four-game under streak isn't an anomaly—it's part of a larger pattern where Nootbaar fails to reach the hits total more often than not. Books appear slow to adjust their assessment of his hitting floor, creating recurring opportunities for sharp under bettors who recognize that his approach and skill set don't support the optimistic projections reflected in these lines.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Nootbaar's 0.88 hits per game average creates consistent value against the typical 1.14 line, supported by 55.6% under rate and positive ROI. Target this prop when books set the line at 1.5 hits or higher, as his patient approach and inconsistent contact make these totals difficult to reach. The main risk is positive regression catching up, but 72 games suggest this is his true talent level rather than extended bad luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lars Nootbaar's Hits prop record all games?
Nootbaar's hits props show a 32-40-0 record across 72 games, with overs hitting just 44.4% of the time. This translates to unders cashing 55.6% of the time, creating consistent value for under bettors who recognize this pattern.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lars Nootbaar Hits all games?
Bet under on Nootbaar's hits props. His 0.88 average significantly trails the typical 1.14 line, generating +6.1% ROI on unders versus -15.2% on overs. The 72-game sample provides strong evidence of sustainable edge.
What's Lars Nootbaar's average Hits all games?
Nootbaar averages 0.88 hits per game, falling 0.26 short of the typical 1.14 line. This substantial gap between production and market expectations creates the foundation for profitable under betting across his hitting props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nootbaar hits unders when books set lines at 1.5 or higher, maximizing the gap between his 0.88 average and the total. His patient approach and inconsistent contact make these elevated totals particularly difficult to achieve.