Kyle Freeland has quietly delivered consistent strikeout value, posting a 10-8 over record (55.6%) while averaging 4.0 strikeouts against a 3.61 line. The +0.4 differential and positive 6.1% ROI on overs suggests modest but sustainable edge. Lean over on Freeland strikeout props.
Expert Analysis
Freeland's strikeout consistency stems from his deceptive repertoire and improved command since returning to form. The left-hander's 4.0 strikeout average exceeding the typical 3.61 line reflects books potentially undervaluing his punch-out ability, particularly given Coors Field's reputation for suppressing pitcher props. His 55.6% over rate isn't overwhelming, but the positive ROI indicates genuine value rather than variance. The modest sample size of 18 games spanning over a year suggests this represents his current skill level rather than a hot streak. Freeland's ability to generate swings and misses has improved with better sequencing and location, making him more reliable for strikeout props than his traditional reputation suggests. The fact that his longest over streak reached five games while under streaks maxed at three indicates he can pile up strikeouts when conditions align. Books may be slow to adjust lines for a pitcher whose strikeout rate has quietly ticked upward, creating ongoing value opportunities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeland's consistent ability to exceed his strikeout line by 0.4 per game creates genuine value, especially when books set conservative numbers based on his historical profile. Target starts where the line sits at 3.5 or lower for maximum edge. Main risk is small sample size potentially masking regression, but the positive ROI and steady differential suggest sustainable profit potential.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyle Freeland's Strikeouts prop record all games?
Kyle Freeland has gone over his strikeout prop in 10 of 18 games (55.6%) while going under 8 times. This 10-8-0 record spans from May 2023 through September 2024, showing consistent value on the over.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyle Freeland Strikeouts all games?
Bet over on Freeland's strikeout props. His 4.0 average exceeds typical 3.61 lines by 0.4 strikeouts per game, generating 6.1% ROI. Target games where the line is set at 3.5 or lower for maximum value.
What's Kyle Freeland's average Strikeouts all games?
Freeland averages 4.0 strikeouts per game across 18 tracked starts, compared to an average line of 3.61. This +0.4 differential consistently favors the over, suggesting books may be setting conservative numbers based on his reputation.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeland strikeout overs when the line is 3.5 or lower, maximizing the value from his 4.0 average. His 5-game over streak shows he can pile up strikeouts, making him most profitable in favorable matchups.