Kyle Bradish has been a strikeout machine, hitting the over in 9 of 13 games (69.2%) with a massive 1.5 strikeout differential above his typical line. His 7.08 average significantly outpaces the standard 5.58 line, generating exceptional 32.2% ROI on overs.
Expert Analysis
Kyle Bradish's strikeout dominance stems from his elite stuff and Baltimore's strategic deployment. The 1.5 strikeout differential above market lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his improved command and increased usage of his devastating slider. Bradish's 7.08 average across 13 games represents legitimate skill progression, not random variance. The Orioles' competitive positioning allows them to let Bradish work deeper into games when he's dealing, extending his strikeout opportunities. His 69.2% over rate spans nearly a full season, indicating sustainable performance rather than a hot streak. The concerning element is the recent single under, breaking a strong pattern, but this appears more like natural variance than regression. Bradish's strikeout props become most valuable when he faces lineups with higher whiff rates, particularly teams that struggle against right-handed breaking balls. The main risk involves early exits due to pitch count concerns or blowout scenarios, but Baltimore's trust in Bradish suggests they'll let him work through standard adversity. Market efficiency gaps on younger pitchers like Bradish create these profitable windows before books fully adjust their modeling.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Bradish's 1.5 strikeout differential above standard lines represents genuine market inefficiency, supported by his improved repertoire and Baltimore's willingness to let him pitch deep. The 69.2% hit rate across 13 games provides sufficient sample size for confidence. Primary risk involves potential early hooks in unfavorable game scripts, but his track record suggests consistent strikeout production regardless of game flow.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 11.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-26 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Strikeouts Prop Lines
Compare Kyle Bradish props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyle Bradish's Strikeouts prop record all games?
Kyle Bradish has hit the over on his strikeouts pitching prop in 9 of 13 games (69.2%) with a 9-4-0 record. His overs have generated an impressive 32.2% ROI while unders have lost 41.3%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyle Bradish Strikeouts all games?
Bet over on Kyle Bradish's strikeouts pitching props. His 1.5 strikeout differential above typical lines and 69.2% hit rate indicate market inefficiency that favors over bettors consistently.
What's Kyle Bradish's average Strikeouts all games?
Kyle Bradish averages 7.08 strikeouts per game compared to his typical 5.58 line, creating a significant 1.5 strikeout cushion. This differential explains his exceptional over performance and betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kyle Bradish strikeout overs when he faces lineups with high whiff rates against right-handed breaking balls. Avoid when he's on short rest or facing elite contact-oriented offenses.