Kutter Crawford has cleared his strikeout total in 6 of his last 10 starts, posting a 60% over rate with a +0.5 average differential above the typical 5.0 line. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests legitimate value, though the modest sample size demands careful consideration.
Expert Analysis
Crawford's 60% over rate reflects his evolving role as a legitimate strikeout threat in Boston's rotation. The +0.5 differential between his 5.5 average and the standard 5.0 line indicates consistent performance above market expectations. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the positive ROI on overs (+14.6%) compared to the significant losses on unders (-23.6%), suggesting the market has been slow to adjust to Crawford's improved strikeout ability. His recent development as a pitcher has featured better command of his breaking balls, leading to more swing-and-miss opportunities. The balanced streak pattern (longest over and under streaks both at 2 games) indicates consistency rather than hot-and-cold volatility. However, the 10-game sample, while meaningful, isn't massive enough to ignore potential regression. Crawford's strikeout upside appears most reliable when he maintains his pitch count through five innings, allowing him to work through lineups multiple times. The lack of significant under streaks suggests his floor has risen considerably from earlier in his career.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Crawford's 60% over rate combined with positive ROI suggests the market hasn't fully caught up to his strikeout improvement. The key is targeting games where he's likely to see 85+ pitches and face lineups twice. Main risk is small sample size and potential regression, but his consistent performance above the 5.0 line indicates sustainable improvement rather than variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best Strikeouts Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kutter Crawford's Strikeouts prop record last 10 games?
Crawford has gone over his strikeout total in 6 of his last 10 starts (60% rate) with a 6-4-0 record. He's averaging 5.5 strikeouts against typical lines around 5.0, showing consistent performance above market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kutter Crawford Strikeouts last 10 games?
Lean over on Crawford's strikeout props. The 60% over rate with +14.6% ROI suggests the market hasn't adjusted to his improvement. Target games where he's projected for 85+ pitches and multiple trips through the lineup.
What's Kutter Crawford's average Strikeouts last 10 games?
Crawford is averaging 5.5 strikeouts over his last 10 games, which is 0.5 above the typical 5.0 line. This positive differential, combined with his 60% over rate, indicates he's consistently exceeding market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Crawford strikeout overs when he's facing lineups with higher strikeout rates and projected for deeper outings. Avoid when he's on pitch restrictions or facing patient, contact-heavy lineups that could limit his swing-and-miss opportunities.