Korey Lee's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 1-of-10 overs (10.0%) while averaging 0.8 total bases against a 2.2 line. The 71.8% ROI on unders reflects a consistent pattern of offensive struggles. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Korey Lee's total bases performance reveals a catcher struggling to generate any offensive production at the major league level. Averaging just 0.8 total bases per game against a 2.2 line creates a massive -1.4 differential that suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his limited skill set or books are banking on recreational action. The 9-game under streak that preceded his lone over indicates this isn't random variance but a reflection of fundamental offensive limitations. As a defensive-first catcher, Lee's plate appearances often prioritize contact and moving runners rather than extra-base hits. His swing profile likely lacks the launch angle and exit velocity needed to consistently reach the 2+ total bases threshold. The concerning aspect for over bettors is the consistency of this underperformance—even in favorable matchups, Lee has failed to capitalize. While regression is always possible in small samples, catchers with Lee's profile typically don't experience dramatic offensive surges mid-season. The market appears slow to adjust to his true offensive ceiling, creating continued value on unders. The 71.8% ROI on unders over this stretch demonstrates how profitable this edge has been for sharp bettors who recognized the pattern early.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Korey Lee's total bases props have become one of the most reliable under plays in baseball, with a 90% hit rate over his last 10 games. His offensive limitations as a defense-first catcher create a fundamental mismatch with the 2.2 line. The main risk is a random multi-hit game, but his consistent struggles suggest the market hasn't properly adjusted to his true offensive ceiling.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Korey Lee's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Korey Lee has gone 1-9 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of over bets. He's averaging 0.8 total bases per game against lines typically set around 2.2, creating a significant -1.4 differential for consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Korey Lee Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on Korey Lee's total bases props. His 90% under rate over the last 10 games and 71.8% ROI make this one of the most reliable under plays available. His offensive limitations create a fundamental edge against the market.
What's Korey Lee's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Korey Lee is averaging just 0.8 total bases over his last 10 games, well below the typical 2.2 line. This -1.4 differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market expectations for any regular player in baseball currently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Korey Lee total bases unders consistently regardless of matchup, as his offensive limitations transcend situational factors. His 9-game under streak demonstrates this edge persists across various pitching matchups and game situations, making it a reliable daily play.