Korey Lee's home run prop at home games presents one of the sharpest under trends in baseball, hitting just 10.5% of overs across 19 games with a staggering -79.9% ROI on overs. Lee averages 0.11 home runs per home game against typical 0.5 lines, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Korey Lee's home run struggles at Guaranteed Rate Field reflect both his limited power profile and the ballpark's pitcher-friendly dimensions. The White Sox catcher has managed just two home runs in 19 home games, translating to a microscopic 0.11 per-game average that falls woefully short of standard 0.5 lines. This isn't variance—it's structural reality. Lee's contact-oriented approach and the White Sox's emphasis on his defensive abilities behind the plate mean he's rarely hunting fastballs in favorable counts. Guaranteed Rate Field's spacious foul territory and neutral-to-pitcher-friendly conditions compound his power limitations. The current five-game under streak extending a pattern that saw Lee go seven straight games without clearing 0.5 home runs earlier in the sample. While regression theory suggests no trend lasts forever, Lee's underlying metrics show no signs of a power breakout. His swing decisions and plate discipline haven't changed meaningfully, and the White Sox lineup construction often places him in run-producing rather than run-scoring situations. The 70.8% ROI on unders isn't just profitable—it's sustainable given Lee's role and skill set.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Lee's 0.11 home run average at home creates a massive 0.39-run cushion against 0.5 lines, supported by both his contact-heavy approach and Guaranteed Rate Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions. Target this prop when Lee faces quality pitching or in day games when his power numbers historically decline further. The primary risk is an eventual hot streak, but his underlying metrics suggest continued under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Korey Lee's Home Runs prop record home games?
Korey Lee has gone 2-17-0 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 10.5% of overs with a devastating -79.9% ROI for over bettors and profitable +70.8% ROI for under backers across 19 games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Korey Lee Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Korey Lee's home runs at home games. His 0.11 average creates massive value against 0.5 lines, supported by a dominant 89.5% under rate and sustainable underlying metrics that show no power breakout coming.
What's Korey Lee's average Home Runs home games?
Korey Lee averages 0.11 home runs per home game, falling 0.39 runs short of typical 0.5 lines. This represents one of the largest negative differentials in baseball, creating consistent under value in his home ballpark.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Korey Lee home run unders during day games and against quality pitching when his already limited power is further suppressed. Avoid betting when he faces struggling pitchers in prime hitting conditions, though even then the under remains favored.