Kevin Gausman has been a consistent under performer on strikeout props, hitting the over in just 33.3% of his last 12 games with an average of 4.92 against a 6.25 line. The -1.3 differential represents significant value on the under side with +27.3% ROI backing this trend.
Expert Analysis
Gausman's strikeout struggles reflect a fundamental shift in his pitching profile that the betting market hasn't fully adjusted to. The veteran right-hander is averaging 1.33 strikeouts below his typical line, suggesting either diminished stuff or altered approach that favors contact over whiffs. His 33.3% over rate across 12 games isn't a small sample fluke - it represents a sustained pattern of underperformance that spans over a season. The market appears slow to recognize this decline, continuing to set lines around his historical strikeout rates rather than his current reality. Gausman's recent two-game under streak extends a longer pattern where he's managed just one consecutive over in his longest hot streak. This consistency in falling short suggests mechanical or strategic changes that aren't temporary. The -36.4% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely already identified this edge, while the +27.3% under ROI confirms the profitability of fading the inflated lines. Without significant changes to his repertoire or usage patterns, this trend appears sustainable as books remain anchored to outdated expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Gausman's sustained underperformance against strikeout lines presents clear value, particularly when books continue setting numbers around 6+ strikeouts. The 1.3-strikeout average differential is too significant to ignore, and his inability to string together over performances suggests this isn't variance. Target spots where the line exceeds 6.0, but avoid when facing particularly weak offenses that might inflate his strikeout ceiling unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 0.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-16 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-08 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-16 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Strikeouts Prop Lines
Compare Kevin Gausman props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kevin Gausman's Strikeouts prop record all games?
Kevin Gausman holds a 4-8-0 over/under record on strikeout props across all games, hitting the over just 33.3% of the time in his last 12 outings. This represents consistent underperformance against the betting market's expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kevin Gausman Strikeouts all games?
Bet under on Gausman's strikeout props. His 4.92 average against 6.25 lines creates a 1.3-strikeout edge, while the +27.3% under ROI confirms profitability. The market hasn't adjusted to his current strikeout decline.
What's Kevin Gausman's average Strikeouts all games?
Gausman averages 4.92 strikeouts per game against typical lines of 6.25, creating a significant -1.3 differential. This gap represents the core value in betting his strikeout unders consistently across different matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gausman strikeout unders when lines are set at 6.0 or higher, as this maximizes the value gap. Avoid betting when he faces particularly weak offensive teams that might temporarily boost his strikeout ceiling.