Ketel Marte's total bases props have been significantly underperforming, hitting just 40% overs in his last 10 games while averaging 2.4 total bases against a typical 3.5 line. The -1.1 differential and strong under ROI of +14.6% signals a clear betting edge toward the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture for Ketel Marte's total bases production over this 10-game sample. Averaging just 2.4 total bases while failing to reach typical lines 60% of the time suggests either a fundamental shift in his approach or underlying factors limiting his extra-base production. The -23.6% ROI on overs versus +14.6% on unders demonstrates the market has been consistently overvaluing his power output. What's particularly telling is the streak patterns - Marte managed just one sustained over streak of three games while recording a four-game under streak, indicating more consistent struggles than hot streaks. The lack of available split data prevents deeper contextual analysis, but the raw production numbers suggest either diminished bat speed, altered plate approach, or potentially nagging injuries affecting his ability to drive balls with authority. This type of sustained underperformance in total bases often reflects mechanical issues or a more selective approach that prioritizes contact over power. Without opposing pitcher matchups or park factors to consider, the trend appears driven by Marte's individual performance rather than external circumstances, making it more likely to persist in the short term.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Ketel Marte's 2.4 average total bases and 40% over rate create a measurable edge on under bets, particularly when lines sit at 3.5 or higher. The ideal conditions involve standard pricing without significant line movement, as the 14.6% under ROI suggests consistent value. The main risk is regression to career norms if this represents a temporary slump rather than a sustainable trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ketel Marte's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Ketel Marte went 4-6 over/under on total bases props in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% overs. He averaged 2.4 total bases during this stretch, consistently falling short of typical 3.5 lines with a -1.1 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ketel Marte Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on Ketel Marte's total bases props. His 40% over rate and 2.4 average against 3.5 lines creates clear value on unders, backed by a positive 14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% losses on overs.
What's Ketel Marte's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Ketel Marte averaged 2.4 total bases over his last 10 games, sitting 1.1 bases below the typical 3.5 line. This significant shortfall explains why under bets generated positive returns while overs consistently lost money.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ketel Marte total bases unders when lines sit at 3.5 or higher with standard pricing. Avoid when books adjust lines significantly lower, as the edge diminishes. Best opportunities come against average pitching without extreme park factors.