Ketel Marte's Total Bases prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40.4% overs across 47 games with a -0.4 differential to the standard 2.5 line. The under delivers +13.7% ROI while overs bleed -22.8%, creating a sustainable edge for disciplined bettors.
Expert Analysis
Ketel Marte's home Total Bases performance reveals a systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers who consistently price him above his actual production level. The 2.06 average against a 2.5 line represents meaningful value, particularly when considering this isn't a small sample fluke—47 games provide substantial statistical weight. The -22.8% ROI on overs indicates books are likely anchoring to Marte's road numbers or overall season averages without properly adjusting for his home environment factors. Chase Field's dimensions and conditions appear to suppress his extra-base hit frequency, though the specific mechanisms aren't immediately clear from surface stats. The 19-28 under record shows remarkable consistency, with the longest under streak reaching five games compared to just three for overs. This suggests when Marte struggles at home, he tends to stay cold for extended periods. The +13.7% under ROI demonstrates this isn't just a break-even proposition—it's generating real profit over time. However, regression risk exists if Marte's approach or the ballpark conditions change, and any hot streak could quickly erode recent gains given baseball's inherent variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate and positive ROI create a legitimate edge, though not overwhelming enough for maximum conviction. Target this prop when Marte faces quality pitching or in day games where his power typically diminishes. The main risk is a prolonged hot streak that could quickly reverse recent trends, but the sample size suggests sustainable value exists.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ketel Marte's Total Bases prop record home games?
Ketel Marte's Total Bases prop record in home games is 19-28-0 over/under, hitting the over just 40.4% of the time across 47 games. His 2.06 average falls 0.4 bases short of the typical 2.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ketel Marte Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Ketel Marte's Total Bases in home games. The 60% under rate and +13.7% ROI provide a clear statistical edge, while overs lose money at -22.8% ROI over this substantial 47-game sample.
What's Ketel Marte's average Total Bases home games?
Ketel Marte averages 2.06 Total Bases in home games, which is 0.4 bases below the standard 2.5 line. This consistent shortfall across 47 games creates measurable value for under bettors seeking profitable opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ketel Marte Total Bases unders in home games against quality pitching or during day games when power numbers typically decline. Avoid after extended cold streaks when regression becomes more likely to occur.