Kerry Carpenter's home run prop has crashed spectacularly over his last 10 games, going under in 80% of appearances with just 2 homers total. The 0.2 average sits a massive 0.3 below typical lines, creating a devastating -61.8% ROI for over bettors. This represents a clear systematic edge for under betting.
Expert Analysis
Kerry Carpenter's power outage represents one of the most dramatic prop collapses in recent memory. Averaging just 0.2 home runs over this 10-game stretch against lines typically set at 0.5, Carpenter has managed only 2 total homers while failing to reach base consistently enough to generate premium scoring opportunities. The 80% under rate isn't just bad luck—it reflects a fundamental shift in his offensive approach or underlying mechanics. Most concerning is the persistence of this trend, with his longest over streak capping at just 1 game while enduring a brutal 5-game under streak that speaks to sustained struggles. The -61.8% ROI for overs demonstrates how dramatically the market has mispriced his current form, likely still pricing in his earlier season power numbers. When a player's actual production sits 60% below market expectations over a meaningful sample, it typically indicates either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or a significant change in role or usage. The current 2-game under streak suggests no immediate signs of breakthrough, making this trend particularly attractive for continued under betting until clear evidence emerges of power restoration.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Carpenter's 0.2 home run average represents a massive 60% gap below typical 0.5 lines, creating clear mathematical value on unders. The 80% under rate over 10 games indicates systematic rather than random underperformance. Primary risk involves potential positive regression if underlying power metrics suggest the drought is unsustainable, but current form strongly favors continued under betting until clear signs of offensive revival emerge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kerry Carpenter's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Kerry Carpenter has gone 2-8-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 2 total home runs for a 20% over rate and devastating -61.8% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kerry Carpenter Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet UNDER on Kerry Carpenter's home runs. His 0.2 average sits 60% below typical 0.5 lines, creating clear mathematical value with an 80% under success rate over this sample.
What's Kerry Carpenter's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Kerry Carpenter is averaging 0.2 home runs over his last 10 games, which sits 0.3 below the typical 0.5 line—a massive 60% gap that creates significant under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kerry Carpenter home run unders when lines remain at 0.5 or higher, as his current 0.2 average creates maximum value. Avoid betting when lines drop to 0.5- or lower.