Ke'Bryan Hayes has been a total bases under machine in away games, hitting the over just 16.7% of the time across 24 games with a devastating -1.3 differential below the typical 2.38 line. This represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
Hayes's away struggles reflect a perfect storm of factors working against total bases production. His 1.08 average sits a full 1.3 bases below the standard line, indicating consistent market mispricing. The 7-game under streak within this sample demonstrates remarkable consistency, while the fact that his longest over streak is just one game shows how rarely he exceeds expectations on the road. Away environments traditionally challenge hitters through unfamiliar ballparks, hostile crowds, and disrupted routines, but Hayes appears particularly susceptible to these factors. His defensive-first profile suggests limited margin for error at the plate, where even slight decreases in timing or confidence can devastate extra-base production. The 59.1% ROI on unders indicates sharp money has recognized this edge, yet the line hasn't adjusted adequately. Most concerning for over bettors is the persistence of this trend across different opponents, ballparks, and game situations, suggesting systematic rather than random underperformance. The sample size of 24 games provides statistical significance while the recency through August 2024 confirms this isn't outdated data.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Hayes's road total bases represent one of baseball's most exploitable under trends, combining a massive -1.3 differential with an 83.3% under rate. Target this prop when Hayes plays away games regardless of opponent or ballpark factors. The primary risk is potential line adjustment, but until books price Hayes more accurately for road games, this edge remains highly profitable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ke'Bryan Hayes's Total Bases prop record away games?
Hayes is 4-20-0 over/under on total bases props in away games, hitting the over just 16.7% of the time. His average of 1.08 total bases sits 1.3 bases below the typical 2.38 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ke'Bryan Hayes Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Hayes's total bases in away games with high confidence. The 83.3% under rate and 59.1% ROI make this one of baseball's most reliable prop trends, offering consistent profit opportunities.
What's Ke'Bryan Hayes's average Total Bases away games?
Hayes averages 1.08 total bases in away games compared to the standard 2.38 line, creating a massive -1.3 differential. This gap represents systematic underperformance rather than random variance, making unders highly profitable.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hayes's total bases unders exclusively in away games where this trend shows 83.3% success. Avoid home games where this data doesn't apply, and bet consistently regardless of opponent matchup or ballpark factors.