Ke'Bryan Hayes presents a compelling under opportunity with just 40.4% overs across 52 games, averaging 0.98 hits against a typical 1.23 line. The Pirates third baseman is currently riding a six-game under streak, reinforcing a pattern that has delivered +13.8% ROI on under bets.
Expert Analysis
Hayes's hitting struggles reflect deeper offensive issues that make this trend particularly sustainable. His 0.98 hits per game average sits a significant 0.25 hits below the standard 1.23 line, creating consistent value on unders. The 21-31 record isn't just bad luck—it represents systematic underperformance likely tied to approach and role within Pittsburgh's offense. Hayes has historically been more valuable for his elite defensive skills at third base rather than his bat, and this data confirms that reality. The current six-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern rather than representing an anomaly. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the consistency—Hayes isn't alternating hot and cold streaks that would create unpredictable variance. Instead, he's demonstrating steady offensive limitations that books haven't fully adjusted for in their line setting. The -22.9% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overestimating his offensive output, while the +13.8% under ROI rewards those recognizing his limitations. With no significant split variations noted, this appears to be a fundamental skill issue rather than situational struggles, making it more predictable across different game contexts.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Hayes's 0.25-hit deficit against the typical line creates consistent value, especially with his current six-game under streak reinforcing the broader pattern. The +13.8% under ROI demonstrates this isn't just recent poor form but a sustainable edge. Primary risk comes from potential lineup changes or improved approach, but his defensive-first profile suggests offensive limitations are likely permanent.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ke'Bryan Hayes's Hits prop record all games?
Hayes has gone under his hits prop in 31 of 52 games (59.6% under rate) with an overall record of 21-31-0 over/under. This 40.4% over rate demonstrates consistent underperformance against betting lines across a substantial sample size.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ke'Bryan Hayes Hits all games?
Bet under on Hayes's hits props. His 0.98 average against a 1.23 line creates consistent value, supported by +13.8% under ROI and a current six-game under streak that aligns with his season-long pattern of offensive struggles.
What's Ke'Bryan Hayes's average Hits all games?
Hayes averages 0.98 hits per game compared to the typical 1.23 line, creating a -0.25 differential. This significant gap between his actual production and betting expectations forms the foundation for profitable under betting opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Hayes's under trend appears consistent across all game situations based on available data. Focus on games where the line remains at 1.0 or higher, as his sub-1.0 average creates the strongest value proposition for under bets.