Jurickson Profar's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% over the last 10 games with a brutal -2.7 average differential. The Padres outfielder is averaging only 1.1 total bases against lines typically set around 3.8, creating exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
Profar's total bases collapse represents one of the most dramatic performance declines in recent memory. The veteran outfielder has managed just 11 total bases across 10 games, a shocking output that suggests either injury concerns or a fundamental shift in his approach at the plate. The 52.7% ROI on unders reflects the market's slow adjustment to this new reality, with books seemingly reluctant to drop lines below the 3.0-3.5 range despite overwhelming evidence. The current six-game under streak indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained downturn. Most telling is the complete absence of multi-base games during this stretch, with Profar managing just singles and strikeouts. This pattern typically emerges when players are battling nagging injuries, facing mechanical issues, or dealing with confidence problems that limit aggressive swings. The Padres' late-season positioning may also factor in, as veteran players sometimes coast when playoff seeding is locked. However, the severity of this decline raises regression concerns, as even struggling major leaguers typically don't sustain sub-1.2 total base averages indefinitely.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 80% under rate and massive -2.7 differential create clear value, but the severity suggests potential overcorrection. Target unders when lines remain above 3.0, as books appear slow to adjust to Profar's current form. Main risk is natural regression to his seasonal norms, but the sustained nature of this decline indicates underlying issues that won't resolve overnight.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jurickson Profar's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Profar has gone 2-8-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. He's averaging only 1.1 total bases per game against lines typically set around 3.8, creating a massive -2.7 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jurickson Profar Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on Profar's total bases props. The 80% under rate and 52.7% ROI on unders over 10 games, combined with his current six-game under streak, creates exceptional value when lines remain above 3.0.
What's Jurickson Profar's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Profar is averaging just 1.1 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 3.8. This -2.7 differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market expectations in recent memory.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Profar total bases unders when lines are set above 3.0, particularly in day games or against quality pitching. Avoid when he faces weak bullpens or in potential blowout spots where garbage-time at-bats could inflate numbers.