Jurickson Profar's home run props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going just 2-8-0 (20% over rate) in his last 10 games with a brutal -0.3 differential versus the typical 0.5 line. The under has delivered a stellar +52.7% ROI while overs have hemorrhaged -61.8%, making this one of the season's most reliable fade spots.
Expert Analysis
Jurickson Profar's power outage over this 10-game stretch represents a dramatic departure from his career norms, averaging just 0.2 home runs per game against books consistently setting his line at 0.5. This isn't merely bad luck—it's a fundamental shift in his offensive profile that creates exploitable betting value. The 20% over rate tells only part of the story; Profar is currently mired in a six-game streak without clearing the home run line, suggesting either mechanical issues or a deliberate approach change that's sapping his power output. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency—there's no back-and-forth volatility that would suggest random variance. Instead, we're seeing sustained underperformance that books haven't adequately adjusted for, creating a pricing inefficiency. The -0.3 differential is massive in baseball props, essentially meaning Profar is performing 60% below expectations on a consistent basis. While regression is always possible with power hitters, the length and severity of this cold streak suggests underlying factors beyond simple variance. Until we see concrete evidence of mechanical adjustments or a change in his launch angle profile, this trend appears sustainable in the near term.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Profar's sustained power drought isn't random variance—it's a systematic underperformance creating genuine market inefficiency. The six-game under streak and -0.3 differential provide compelling evidence that books are slow to adjust their 0.5 home run lines. Target this prop in favorable pitcher matchups or larger ballparks where his diminished power plays are further suppressed. The main risk is immediate regression to career norms, but the consistency of this trend suggests deeper issues than simple bad luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jurickson Profar's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Profar went 2-8-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of his props while averaging 0.2 homers per game against a typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.3 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jurickson Profar Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Profar's sustained power outage has created a genuine market inefficiency, with unders posting a +52.7% ROI while overs have lost -61.8%. This isn't random variance—it's exploitable systematic underperformance.
What's Jurickson Profar's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Profar averaged just 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, performing 0.3 below the standard 0.5 line. This 60% underperformance versus market expectations represents one of the season's largest negative differentials.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Profar home run unders in pitcher-friendly environments or larger ballparks where his diminished power is further suppressed. Avoid when he faces weak pitching in hitter-friendly conditions where immediate regression becomes more likely.