Jurickson Profar's home run props present one of the season's most reliable under plays, hitting just 14.6% of overs across 89 games with a devastating -0.4 differential versus the typical 0.5 line. Currently riding a six-game under streak, this represents a clear systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of market inefficiency around Profar's power output. His 0.15 home runs per game average sits dramatically below the standard 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders throughout 2024. This isn't a recent cold streak—it's a season-long pattern reflecting Profar's role as a contact-first outfielder rather than a power threat. The 63% ROI on unders demonstrates how persistently books have overestimated his pop, likely influenced by his solid batting average and counting stats that mask limited extra-base power. Profar's 12-game under streak earlier this season illustrates just how extended these dry spells can become. His swing path and approach favor line drives over launch angle optimization, making the occasional homer more of an accident than design. The market appears slow to adjust to this reality, continuing to offer inflated lines that create systematic value. With no meaningful splits suggesting situational power surges, this trend shows remarkable consistency across all game contexts, making it one of the more predictable props in baseball.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Profar's 14.6% over rate represents a fundamental market mispricing that shows no signs of correction. The -0.4 differential versus typical lines creates immediate mathematical edge, while his contact-oriented approach suggests limited regression risk. Target unders especially when the line sits at 0.5, as his true talent level appears closer to 0.1-0.2 home runs per game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jurickson Profar's Home Runs prop record all games?
Profar's home run props show a dominant 13-76-0 under record across 89 games in 2024, hitting just 14.6% of overs. This represents one of the season's most lopsided prop trends with unders cashing at an 85.4% clip.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jurickson Profar Home Runs all games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Profar's 0.15 home runs per game sits well below typical 0.5 lines, creating consistent value. The 63% ROI on unders and current six-game under streak support continued backing of this trend.
What's Jurickson Profar's average Home Runs all games?
Profar averages just 0.15 home runs per game in 2024, creating a massive -0.4 differential versus the standard 0.5 line. This gap represents the core edge, as his true power output sits dramatically below market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Profar home run unders when lines sit at 0.5, as this creates maximum mathematical edge given his 0.15 average. All game contexts show similar results, making this one of the more timing-agnostic props available.