Jurickson Profar's home hitting props present a compelling under opportunity, with overs cashing just 40.8% of the time across 49 games while averaging 0.92 hits against a 1.32 line. The -0.4 differential and +13.0% under ROI signal consistent value betting the under.
Expert Analysis
Profar's home hitting struggles stem from a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and actual production at Petco Park. The veteran outfielder averages nearly half a hit below the typical 1.32 line, creating sustained value for under bettors who've enjoyed 13% ROI. This isn't a small sample anomaly—across 49 home games, Profar consistently underperformed hitting expectations, suggesting either park factors or psychological elements affecting his approach. The 20-29 over-under record represents a significant deviation from the 50% baseline, indicating the market hasn't fully adjusted to his home environment challenges. Petco Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions and marine layer conditions likely contribute to suppressed offensive numbers, but Profar's specific struggles go beyond park effects given his role as a contact hitter. The current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, though his longest over streak of eight games shows he's capable of hot stretches. However, the consistency of the underperformance—nearly 60% under rate—suggests structural factors rather than random variance. Bettors should recognize this edge exists because recreational money often inflates props for recognizable veterans, creating systematic mispricing opportunities for disciplined under betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 40.8% over rate and -0.4 differential provide clear mathematical edge, supported by consistent underperformance across a meaningful 49-game sample. Target under bets when the line sits at 1.5 hits or higher, as Profar's 0.92 average creates maximum value. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or hot streaks, but the persistent home struggles suggest continued under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jurickson Profar's Hits prop record home games?
Profar's home hits prop record stands at 20-29, meaning overs cash just 40.8% of the time across 49 games. This represents a significant under bias, with nearly 60% of his home games staying under the projected line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jurickson Profar Hits home games?
Bet under on Profar's home hits props. The data strongly supports under betting with a 13% ROI and consistent 0.4-hit deficit below typical lines. Focus on games where the line is 1.5 hits or higher for maximum edge.
What's Jurickson Profar's average Hits home games?
Profar averages 0.92 hits in home games compared to the typical 1.32 line, creating a -0.4 differential. This substantial gap between production and market expectations has persisted across 49 games, indicating systematic undervaluation of the under.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Profar hits unders when lines are set at 1.5+ hits and he's facing quality pitching at Petco Park. Avoid betting during hot streaks, but the consistent home underperformance suggests most opportunities provide value for disciplined under betting.