Jurickson Profar's hits props present a clear under opportunity with just 40.4% overs across 89 games in 2024. His 0.92 average sits 0.43 hits below the typical 1.35 line, generating +13.7% ROI on unders versus -22.8% on overs.
Expert Analysis
Profar's hitting struggles reflect a fundamental shift from his breakout 2024 first half to sustained mediocrity. The 0.92 hits per game average against a 1.35 line reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his regression. This isn't a small sample aberration—89 games provide robust data showing consistent underperformance. The current five-game under streak extends a pattern where Profar has hit his longest under streak of eight games, suggesting momentum favors continued struggles. His 40.4% over rate indicates he's failing to reach the line roughly six out of every ten games, creating predictable value for under bettors. The -0.43 differential between average and line is substantial in baseball props, where margins are typically tighter. Profar's contact issues and approach adjustments by opposing pitchers have created a sustainable edge. The lack of meaningful hot streaks—his longest over run was just six games—demonstrates his ceiling remains limited. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, maintaining inflated expectations based on early-season performance rather than current reality.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Profar's 0.92 average creates a massive 0.43-hit cushion below typical lines, supported by 89 games of data showing 60% under results. The +13.7% ROI on unders versus -22.8% on overs confirms sustainable value. Target this prop consistently when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, as Profar's contact regression appears structural rather than temporary.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jurickson Profar's Hits prop record all games?
Profar went 36-53-0 on hits props across 89 games in 2024, hitting overs just 40.4% of the time. This translates to unders cashing in 53 of 89 opportunities, providing consistent value for under bettors throughout the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jurickson Profar Hits all games?
Bet UNDER on Profar's hits props with high confidence. His 0.92 average sits well below typical 1.35 lines, generating +13.7% ROI on unders while overs lose -22.8%. The 89-game sample confirms this edge is sustainable and profitable.
What's Jurickson Profar's average Hits all games?
Profar averages 0.92 hits per game in 2024, creating a significant 0.43-hit gap below the standard 1.35 line. This substantial differential explains why unders hit 60% of the time and generate positive ROI for bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Profar hits unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, maximizing the value from his 0.92 average. His consistent underperformance makes this prop profitable across most game situations, regardless of opponent or venue factors.