J.P. Crawford's home run prop at home games presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under in 27 of 29 games (93.1%) with a devastating -86.8% ROI on overs. Crawford averages just 0.07 home runs per home game against typical 0.5 lines, creating massive value on unders with exceptional consistency.
Expert Analysis
Crawford's home run futility at T-Mobile Park stems from both his contact-oriented profile and Seattle's pitcher-friendly dimensions. The Mariners shortstop has transformed into a table-setter who prioritizes getting on base over power, evident in his microscopic 0.07 home run average at home. T-Mobile Park's expansive foul territory and marine layer consistently suppress offensive numbers, particularly for left-handed hitters like Crawford who must overcome the park's right-field dimensions. The 17-game under streak isn't an anomaly—it reflects Crawford's fundamental approach and home ballpark reality. His swing has become increasingly geared toward line drives and ground balls, with launch angle data showing a player who rarely elevates for power. The Mariners have also encouraged this approach, valuing Crawford's defensive excellence and on-base skills over sporadic power. While regression always looms in baseball, Crawford's home run drought appears structural rather than cyclical. His batted ball profile shows no meaningful changes that would suggest impending power surge, and Seattle's coaching staff continues emphasizing his strengths as a catalyst rather than run producer.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Crawford's home run prop represents exceptional value given his contact-first approach and T-Mobile Park's suppressive effects on power numbers. The 93.1% under rate across 29 games reflects fundamental player profile rather than variance, making this one of baseball's most reliable under bets. Primary risk involves random home run binges that occasionally plague even the weakest power hitters.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is J.P. Crawford's Home Runs prop record home games?
Crawford has gone 2-27 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 0.07 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines. This represents a 93.1% under rate with devastating -86.8% ROI for over bettors across 29 games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on J.P. Crawford Home Runs home games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Crawford's contact-first approach and T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions create one of baseball's most reliable under trends, with 27 unders in 29 home games and consistent value.
What's J.P. Crawford's average Home Runs home games?
Crawford averages 0.07 home runs per home game, creating a massive -0.46 differential against standard 0.5 lines. This microscopic power output at home reflects his transformed approach as a table-setter rather than run producer.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Crawford home run unders during any home game, particularly against quality pitching or in day games when marine layer effects intensify. The trend shows remarkable consistency regardless of matchup specifics or recent form.