Josh Smith's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% of overs across his last 10 games with a devastating -1.6 average differential. The Rangers shortstop is averaging only 1.2 total bases against lines around 2.8, creating consistent value on the under with +33.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Josh Smith's total bases struggles stem from a perfect storm of contact quality and opportunity issues that have persisted throughout this 10-game sample. The Rangers shortstop is managing just 1.2 total bases per game against market expectations of 2.8, a massive 57% shortfall that suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his current form or there are underlying mechanical issues affecting his power output. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose ceiling has been artificially capped, whether by injury, fatigue, or simple regression from earlier season performance. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency of the underperformance - Smith isn't alternating between explosive games and quiet ones, he's steadily disappointing expectations. The longest under streak of three games shows sustained struggles, while his current single-game over streak appears more like noise than signal. For a shortstop position that typically sees more consistent at-bat volume, Smith's inability to reach even modest total bases lines suggests deeper issues than simple bad luck. The sample size of 10 games provides enough data to identify a legitimate edge while remaining recent enough to reflect his current true talent level.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Smith's 70% under rate and -1.6 average differential represent one of the most reliable prop trends in baseball right now. The market appears slow to adjust to his diminished power output, creating consistent value on total bases unders. Target this prop when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, as Smith has shown little ability to reach even modest expectations. Primary risk is a single explosive game that could signal regression to the mean.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Smith's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Josh Smith has gone under his total bases prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% under rate) with just 3 overs. This 3-7-0 record represents one of the most consistent under trends for any regular player in recent weeks.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Smith Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on Josh Smith's total bases props with high confidence. His 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders over the last 10 games creates clear value, especially when lines are set at 2.5 or higher.
What's Josh Smith's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Josh Smith is averaging just 1.2 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical market lines around 2.8. This -1.6 differential represents a massive 57% shortfall from expectations, creating consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Josh Smith total bases unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, particularly in day games or against quality pitching where his power ceiling is further limited. Avoid after rest days when regression risk increases.