Josh Smith has gone 0-10 on home run overs in his last 10 games, producing a perfect 0.0% over rate with zero home runs against a 0.5 line. This represents a complete power outage for the Rangers shortstop. Strong lean under on any home run props.
Expert Analysis
Josh Smith's complete absence of home run production over his last 10 games represents more than just a cold streak - it reflects his underlying profile as a contact-first middle infielder. With zero home runs against a consistent 0.5 line, Smith has failed to reach even the lowest possible threshold for power production. This trend persists because Smith's swing mechanics and approach prioritize putting the ball in play rather than driving for extra bases. His shortstop position demands defensive focus, often leaving less energy for aggressive offensive approaches. The Rangers likely value his glove work and table-setting abilities over power production, reinforcing a contact-heavy approach at the plate. While regression toward some power is mathematically inevitable over larger samples, Smith's 10-game sample suggests his true talent level sits well below even modest home run expectations. The consistency of this trend - a perfect 10-game under streak - indicates this isn't random variance but rather reflects his actual skill set. Bettors should recognize that Smith's power ceiling remains extremely low, making under bets on home run props a high-probability play until he demonstrates sustained changes in approach or batted ball profile.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Smith's perfect 0-10 record against home run overs reflects his true talent level as a singles hitter rather than temporary bad luck. The -100% ROI on overs versus +90.9% on unders tells the complete story. Ideal conditions exist whenever books offer 0.5+ home run lines, as Smith's contact-first approach makes even one home run unlikely in single games. Main risk is sample size regression, but his defensive-focused role suggests continued power struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Smith's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Josh Smith has gone 0-10 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting zero home runs total. Against a consistent 0.5 line, he's failed to reach even the minimum power threshold, creating a perfect under record.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Smith Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet under on Josh Smith home run props with high confidence. His 0-10 record and zero home runs in 10 games reflects his contact-first skill set rather than bad luck, making unders highly profitable at +90.9% ROI.
What's Josh Smith's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Josh Smith has averaged 0.0 home runs over his last 10 games against a 0.5 line, creating a -0.5 differential. This massive gap shows his power production falls well short of even modest betting expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Josh Smith home run unders whenever books offer 0.5+ lines, especially in single-game props. His defensive role and contact approach make power production consistently unlikely regardless of matchup or ballpark factors.