Josh Jung's power has completely evaporated over his last 10 games, hitting just one home run while averaging 0.1 per game against a typical 0.6 line. With a brutal 10% over rate and seven consecutive unders, the Rangers third baseman represents one of the strongest under trends in baseball. LEAN UNDER with medium-high confidence.
Expert Analysis
Jung's power drought reflects a concerning combination of mechanical struggles and situational factors that have persisted for over a month. The 0.5 home run differential between his actual production and betting lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current form, creating consistent value on unders. His seven-game under streak isn't just bad luck – it represents a fundamental shift in his approach or ability to turn on pitches. The sample size of 10 games provides meaningful data without being so extensive that regression becomes inevitable. Jung's 10% over rate is remarkably low for a player typically expected to hit 0.6 home runs per game, indicating either a mechanical flaw, injury concerns, or simply a cold streak that books are slow to recognize. The -80.9% ROI on overs tells the story clearly – backing Jung's power has been financial suicide. While power can return quickly in baseball, the consistency of this trend across different opponents and situations suggests something more systematic than random variance. The lack of even a two-game over streak within this sample reinforces that this isn't normal fluctuation but a genuine shift in Jung's current capabilities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with medium-high confidence. Jung's complete power outage over 10 games creates exploitable value against inflated lines that haven't caught up to his reality. The ideal betting spots come when his home run line sits at 0.5 or higher, particularly in neutral or pitcher-friendly environments. The primary risk is sudden regression to his season norms, but the consistency and duration of this slump suggests continued under value until he shows signs of breaking through with multiple home runs in a short span.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Jung's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Josh Jung has gone 1-9-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just one home run total. This represents a dismal 10% over rate with an average of 0.1 home runs per game, creating an 80.9% loss rate for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Jung Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet under on Jung's home runs with medium-high confidence. His seven-game under streak and 0.5 differential below expected production creates clear value. Target unders when his line is 0.5 or higher, as books haven't adjusted to his current power drought.
What's Josh Jung's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Jung is averaging just 0.1 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, a massive 0.5 differential below his typical 0.6 line. This represents an 83% decrease from expected production, making unders extremely profitable with a 71.8% ROI during this span.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jung home run unders when his line is set at 0.5 or higher, particularly in pitcher-friendly parks or against quality opposing pitching. Avoid betting after any multi-hit power display, as that could signal the end of his current drought and line adjustment.