José Ramírez has been ice-cold with the long ball, hitting just 30.0% overs on his home run props over his last 10 games while averaging only 0.3 home runs against typical 0.5 lines. The under has delivered a robust +33.6% ROI, making this one of the season's most reliable fade spots.
Expert Analysis
José Ramírez's power drought represents a dramatic departure from his career norms, with his 0.3 home run average per game falling 40% below standard book lines of 0.5. This isn't just a cold streak—it's a systematic breakdown in his power production that has persisted across a meaningful 10-game sample. The 3-7-0 over/under record tells only part of the story; the -42.7% ROI on overs reveals just how consistently books have overestimated his pop during this stretch. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency of the fade. Ramírez has strung together a five-game under streak within this sample, suggesting this isn't random variance but a genuine shift in his offensive profile. The veteran third baseman appears to be pressing at the plate, potentially adjusting his approach as Cleveland fights for playoff positioning. His swing decisions and contact quality metrics likely reflect a player prioritizing contact over power, creating a disconnect between his reputation-based lines and current reality. The under trend has shown remarkable persistence, with only brief interruptions in the over column. This pattern suggests books are slow to adjust to Ramírez's current form, creating continued value on the under until his power stroke returns or lines properly reflect his diminished home run frequency.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. José Ramírez's power has completely vanished, making the under a consistent winner at +33.6% ROI. Books continue setting lines based on his reputation rather than current form, creating value every time he steps in the box. The main risk is regression to his career norms, but this 10-game sample suggests a legitimate shift in approach that should persist until proven otherwise.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is José Ramírez's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
José Ramírez has gone 3-7-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30.0% of his over bets. He's averaging only 0.3 home runs per game during this stretch, well below standard expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on José Ramírez Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on José Ramírez home runs. His power has completely disappeared, averaging just 0.3 homers per game while under bets have delivered +33.6% ROI. Books haven't adjusted to his current form.
What's José Ramírez's average Home Runs last 10 games?
José Ramírez is averaging 0.3 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, running 0.2 below typical 0.5 lines. This represents a 40% decrease from standard book expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target José Ramírez home run unders when books set lines at 0.5 or higher. His current power outage makes any reputation-based line profitable to fade until he shows signs of breaking out.