Jorge Soler's home run props present a massive under opportunity with just 6 overs in 34 games (17.6% rate). His 0.18 average sits 0.3 runs below the typical 0.5 line, generating +57.2% ROI on unders. This is a strong fade candidate.
Expert Analysis
Jorge Soler's home run production has cratered in the second half of 2024, creating one of the season's most profitable under trends. His 17.6% over rate represents a dramatic disconnect from standard pricing, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his diminished power output. The 0.18 average against a 0.5 line creates consistent value, particularly given his recent nine-game under streak that demonstrates sustained futility rather than random variance. Soler's age-32 season appears to show legitimate decline, as power typically peaks earlier in careers. The lack of split data actually strengthens the case, as it suggests consistent struggles across all situations rather than situational weaknesses that could reverse. His longest over streak was just two games, indicating even his brief hot periods lack sustainability. The -66.3% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning about the futility of backing Soler's power, while the +57.2% under ROI represents elite profitability. This isn't a small sample fluke - 34 games provides sufficient data to identify a meaningful trend, especially when supported by underlying age and performance decline indicators.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Soler's power has evaporated, creating a 34-game sample with elite under profitability. Target this prop in all situations, as his consistent struggles transcend matchup-specific factors. The main risk is regression to career norms, but at age 32, this appears to be legitimate decline rather than temporary slump.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jorge Soler's Home Runs prop record all games?
Jorge Soler's home run prop record shows 6 overs and 28 unders in 34 games, producing a dismal 17.6% over rate. This represents one of the season's most lopsided trends against the over.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jorge Soler Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Jorge Soler's home runs with high confidence. His 17.6% over rate and +57.2% under ROI create elite value. His power has disappeared, making unders the clear play across all situations.
What's Jorge Soler's average Home Runs all games?
Jorge Soler averages 0.18 home runs per game, sitting 0.3 runs below the typical 0.5 line. This significant gap creates consistent value for under bettors throughout his recent 34-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Jorge Soler home run unders in all situations, as his struggles appear universal rather than matchup-dependent. Target props immediately when available, as this trend shows remarkable consistency across his entire sample period.