Jorge Polanco's Total Bases prop at home shows a stark underperformance with just 9 overs in 28 games (32.1%). His 0.93 average sits a full base below the typical 1.96 line, creating a profitable under opportunity with 29.6% ROI. This represents a clear systematic edge.
Expert Analysis
Jorge Polanco's home Total Bases struggles reflect a perfect storm of declining power and unfavorable conditions. Averaging just 0.93 total bases per home game against lines typically set around 1.96, Polanco falls short by over one full base consistently. This isn't random variance - it's systematic underperformance driven by his transition to Seattle and T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions. The 32.1% over rate across 28 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the -38.6% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market has overvalued his home production. Polanco's power metrics have declined significantly since his Minnesota days, and Seattle's spacious outfield dimensions compound this issue. The seven-game under streak within this sample shows the trend's persistence, while even his longest over streak reached just four games. His home environment clearly suppresses the extra-base hits needed to exceed these props, creating a reliable betting edge that the market hasn't fully adjusted to recognize.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Polanco's home Total Bases props offer consistent value with his 0.93 average sitting well below typical lines. The 29.6% under ROI across 28 games demonstrates clear market inefficiency. Target props set at 1.5+ total bases, especially when lines reach 2.0 or higher. Main risk is potential lineup position improvement or hot streak variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jorge Polanco's Total Bases prop record home games?
Jorge Polanco has gone over his Total Bases prop in just 9 of 28 home games (32.1%) with a 9-19-0 record. His home average of 0.93 total bases falls significantly short of typical 1.96 lines, demonstrating consistent underperformance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jorge Polanco Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Jorge Polanco's Total Bases props at home. His 0.93 average versus 1.96 lines creates clear value, supported by 29.6% under ROI and only 32.1% over rate across 28 games. Target lines set at 1.5+ total bases.
What's Jorge Polanco's average Total Bases home games?
Jorge Polanco averages 0.93 total bases in home games, compared to typical prop lines around 1.96. This creates a massive 1.03 base differential, explaining why he's hit the over in just 32.1% of home contests this season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jorge Polanco's Total Bases unders when props are set at 1.5 or higher, especially at T-Mobile Park. His home struggles are most pronounced against quality pitching, making under bets ideal when facing strong opposing starters.