Jorge Polanco's home run prop at home has been one of 2024's most reliable unders, hitting just 10.3% of the time with a devastating 3-26-0 record. His 0.1 average sits 0.4 homers below the typical 0.5 line, generating +71.2% ROI on unders. This represents a clear systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Jorge Polanco's home run futility at T-Mobile Park represents a perfect storm of diminished power and ballpark suppression. The veteran second baseman managed just three home runs across 29 home games in 2024, a rate that would project to roughly eight over a full 162-game season. This isn't merely bad luck—it reflects fundamental changes in Polanco's offensive profile following his move to Seattle. T-Mobile Park's spacious dimensions and marine layer consistently neutralize fly balls that might leave other stadiums, particularly problematic for a player whose exit velocity and launch angle metrics have declined. The 16-game homerless streak embedded within this sample demonstrates the persistence of this trend rather than random variance. Polanco's age-31 season showed clear signs of diminished bat speed, with his hard-hit rate dropping significantly from his Minnesota peak years. The combination of reduced power output and one of baseball's most pitcher-friendly home environments creates a systematic disadvantage that books have struggled to properly price. Even when Polanco makes solid contact at home, the ballpark dimensions turn potential home runs into warning track outs, creating a compounding effect that makes the under increasingly valuable as the sample grows.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 89.7% under rate isn't fluky—it's the predictable result of diminished power meeting pitcher-friendly dimensions. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, especially in day games when marine layer effects are strongest. The primary risk is a hot streak inflating the line, but Polanco's underlying metrics suggest this home run drought will persist through any potential venue change.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Jorge Polanco props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jorge Polanco's Home Runs prop record home games?
Jorge Polanco went 3-26-0 over/under on home runs in home games during 2024, hitting just 10.3% of overs. He averaged 0.1 home runs per home game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a -0.4 differential that generated +71.2% ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jorge Polanco Home Runs home games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Polanco's 89.7% under rate at home reflects systematic factors—diminished power and T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions. This isn't variance; it's a predictable outcome that books consistently misprice at 0.5.
What's Jorge Polanco's average Home Runs home games?
Jorge Polanco averaged 0.1 home runs per home game in 2024, sitting 0.4 below the standard 0.5 line. This massive differential represents one of the season's largest gaps between actual production and betting market expectations for home run props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Polanco's home run under during day games when T-Mobile Park's marine layer is strongest. The prop offers best value at 0.5 lines, particularly early in series when books haven't adjusted for his home ballpark struggles.