Jorge Polanco has been an absolute disaster for hits prop bettors, going just 2-8 over his last 10 games with a brutal -61.8% ROI on overs. Averaging only 0.7 hits against a 1.4 line creates a massive -0.7 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Polanco's hitting struggles represent more than just a cold streak—they signal a fundamental breakdown in his offensive approach. The 0.7 hits per game average against a 1.4 line reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his declining production, creating persistent value on unders. His longest under streak of six games demonstrates sustained futility, while his longest over streak maxed at just one game, showing zero momentum when he does connect. The 20% over rate indicates Polanco is failing to reach his hit total in four out of every five games, a rate so extreme it suggests either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or simple regression from an aging player. The -0.7 differential is particularly telling—it's not close misses but systematic underperformance by nearly a full hit per game. Seattle's offensive struggles as a team likely compound Polanco's individual issues, as fewer quality at-bats and less favorable game situations limit his opportunities. While regression toward his career norms is always possible, the consistency of this underperformance over 10 games suggests this isn't random variance but a new reality for the veteran infielder.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.7 differential and 80% under rate create clear value, but the sample size prevents maximum conviction. Target this prop when Polanco faces quality pitching or in road games where Seattle's offensive environment is even more challenging. The main risk is immediate regression, but his sustained struggles suggest books are slow to adjust, maintaining the edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jorge Polanco's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Polanco has gone 2-8 on hits props over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 20% of the time. This represents one of the worst over rates you'll find among qualified players, with only two games reaching his hit total.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jorge Polanco Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Polanco's hits props. His 0.7 average against a 1.4 line creates nearly a full-hit cushion, while his 80% under rate and +52.7% under ROI demonstrate consistent profitability on the under side.
What's Jorge Polanco's average Hits last 10 games?
Polanco is averaging just 0.7 hits per game over his last 10 contests, creating a massive -0.7 differential against the typical 1.4 line. This gap represents systematic underperformance rather than close misses.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Polanco hit unders against quality pitching staffs and in road games where Seattle's offensive environment is most challenging. Avoid when he faces struggling pitchers or in favorable hitting conditions at T-Mobile Park.