Jorge Mateo's total bases props present a compelling under opportunity with just 28.9% overs across 38 games. His 1.11 average sits 0.7 bases below the typical 1.82 line, generating +35.6% ROI on unders. The current 5-game under streak reinforces this systematic edge.
Expert Analysis
Jorge Mateo's total bases profile reveals a fundamental disconnect between market perception and on-field production. His 1.11 average against a 1.82 line creates a massive 39% gap that suggests books are overvaluing his offensive ceiling. The 11-27 over/under record isn't just poor luck—it reflects Mateo's role as a defensive specialist who prioritizes contact over power. His longest under streak of 11 games demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while his maximum over streak of just 3 games shows limited upside volatility. The -44.7% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely identified this edge, yet the line remains inflated. Mateo's profile as a utility infielder means inconsistent playing time and situational at-bats, further limiting his total bases ceiling. Without splits data to identify favorable spots, the systematic underperformance becomes even more valuable. The current 5-game under streak aligns perfectly with his season-long pattern, suggesting this isn't variance but rather market inefficiency. Books appear to be pricing Mateo based on positional expectations rather than his actual offensive production, creating sustained value on the under.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jorge Mateo's 28.9% over rate and 0.7-base deficit create a systematic edge that sharp bettors should exploit consistently. The 35.6% ROI on unders validates this approach across meaningful sample size. Target this prop whenever available, as the market continues overvaluing his offensive ceiling despite overwhelming evidence of consistent underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jorge Mateo's Total Bases prop record all games?
Jorge Mateo's total bases record in all games stands at 11-27-0 over/under, hitting the over just 28.9% of the time across 38 games. His 1.11 average significantly trails the typical 1.82 line by 0.7 total bases.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jorge Mateo Total Bases all games?
Bet the UNDER on Jorge Mateo's total bases props. His 28.9% over rate and +35.6% ROI on unders create a systematic edge. The 0.7-base deficit between his average and the line represents consistent market inefficiency worth exploiting.
What's Jorge Mateo's average Total Bases all games?
Jorge Mateo averages 1.11 total bases per game across all situations, compared to the typical 1.82 line. This 0.7-base deficit represents a 39% gap, indicating the market consistently overvalues his offensive production and total bases ceiling.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Jorge Mateo's total bases under consistently in all game situations. Without favorable splits data, his systematic 28.9% over rate and current 5-game under streak suggest the edge exists regardless of matchup or game context.