Jorge Mateo presents one of the most lopsided home run prop trends in baseball, hitting the under in 35 of 38 games (92.1% under rate) with a catastrophic 0.08 average against a 0.5 line. This utility infielder's complete lack of power makes the under a premium play.
Expert Analysis
Jorge Mateo's home run prop represents a fundamental mismatch between sportsbook pricing and player ability. His 0.08 home run average sits a staggering 0.42 runs below the standard 0.5 line, creating consistent value on the under. This isn't a temporary slump—it reflects Mateo's profile as a speed-first utility player who prioritizes contact over power. His 24-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency in failing to clear even the lowest home run threshold. The 7.9% over rate across 38 games suggests books are either slow to adjust or factoring in rare variance that simply doesn't materialize with Mateo's swing profile. His approach focuses on putting the ball in play and using his wheels, not elevating for power. The -84.9% ROI on overs tells the complete story—betting Mateo to homer has been financial suicide. While regression toward league norms might concern some bettors, Mateo's skillset suggests this trend has staying power. His bat-to-ball skills and speed-centric game plan create a ceiling that rarely reaches home run territory. The under's +75.8% ROI reflects the market's persistent overvaluation of his power potential.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jorge Mateo's 92.1% under rate and 0.08 home run average create a massive edge against the 0.5 line. His speed-first profile and 24-game under streak indicate this isn't variance—it's who he is as a hitter. The primary risk is the occasional mistake pitch he turns around, but his approach and swing mechanics make this extremely rare. Target this prop consistently across all matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jorge Mateo's Home Runs prop record all games?
Jorge Mateo's home run prop record shows 3 overs and 35 unders across 38 games, translating to a 7.9% over rate and 92.1% under rate. His average of 0.08 home runs per game sits well below the typical 0.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jorge Mateo Home Runs all games?
Bet the under on Jorge Mateo's home runs with high confidence. His 92.1% under rate, 24-game under streak, and speed-first profile create consistent value. The 0.08 average against a 0.5 line offers a significant mathematical edge.
What's Jorge Mateo's average Home Runs all games?
Jorge Mateo averages 0.08 home runs per game, sitting 0.42 runs below the standard 0.5 line. This massive differential reflects his contact-oriented approach and lack of power, creating consistent value on the under across all matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Jorge Mateo's home run under consistently across all matchups and conditions. His speed-first profile and contact approach make the under valuable regardless of pitcher or ballpark. The 24-game under streak shows this edge persists in various situations.