Jordan Westburg's Total Bases prop at Camden Yards presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 31.7% overs across 41 home games with a brutal -0.2 average differential. The consistent underperformance generates 30.4% ROI on unders while destroying over bettors at -39.5%.
Expert Analysis
Westburg's home struggles with Total Bases props stem from a fundamental disconnect between his actual production and market expectations. Averaging 1.88 total bases against a typical 2.06 line creates consistent value on unders, particularly given his current two-game under streak following a season-long pattern of regression. The 31.7% over rate across 41 games isn't a small sample fluke—it represents systematic underperformance in familiar conditions. Camden Yards' dimensions and Westburg's approach appear mismatched, as evidenced by the sustained -0.2 differential that has persisted from August 2023 through July 2024. His longest under streak of six games demonstrates the prop can run cold for extended periods, while his maximum over streak caps at just two games. This suggests Westburg's home Total Bases props are structurally overvalued, creating a reliable edge for disciplined under bettors. The 30.4% ROI on unders validates this approach, though bettors should monitor for any mechanical adjustments or lineup changes that could alter his home production profile.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Westburg's sustained home underperformance creates legitimate value, but the moderate confidence reflects potential for short-term variance. Target unders when the line sits at 2.0 or higher, especially during day games or against quality pitching. Primary risk involves hot streaks breaking the pattern, though his two-game maximum over streak suggests limited upside volatility.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Westburg's Total Bases prop record home games?
Westburg's Total Bases prop record at home is 13-28-0 over/under across 41 games, hitting just 31.7% overs. This represents one of the more reliable under trends in baseball props, with nearly seven unders for every three overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Westburg Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Westburg's Total Bases at home. The 30.4% ROI on unders combined with his -0.2 average differential creates legitimate value. Focus on lines at 2.0 or higher for maximum edge, particularly against quality pitching.
What's Jordan Westburg's average Total Bases home games?
Westburg averages 1.88 total bases in home games compared to the typical 2.06 line, creating a -0.2 differential. This consistent gap between production and expectations drives the strong under performance across his 41-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Westburg Total Bases unders at Camden Yards when lines reach 2.0 or higher, especially during day games or against above-average pitching. Avoid during hot streaks, though his maximum over streak is just two games.