Jordan Westburg presents a compelling under opportunity with just 31.6% overs across 79 games, averaging 1.76 total bases against a typical 2.17 line. The Orioles third baseman's consistent underperformance has generated a +30.5% ROI on unders. This is a strong lean under play.
Expert Analysis
Westburg's total bases struggles stem from his contact-first approach that limits extra-base production. His 1.76 average sits a substantial 0.41 bases below the standard line, indicating sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted to his singles-heavy profile. The 31.6% over rate across nearly 80 games represents a large enough sample to trust the trend's validity. His current six-game under streak aligns with a longer pattern of consistent base-running modesty. The -39.6% ROI on overs tells the complete story of a player whose power numbers don't match betting market expectations. Westburg's approach works for batting average and on-base percentage, but total bases props require extra-base hits he simply doesn't produce consistently. The longest under streak of eight games shows how extended these cold stretches can become. Without significant changes to his swing mechanics or approach, this under trend should persist. The lack of meaningful splits data suggests this performance is consistent across various game situations, making it a reliable betting angle regardless of opponent or venue.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Westburg's 31.6% over rate and -0.4 average differential create a sustainable edge for under bettors. The +30.5% ROI on unders validates this approach over a meaningful 79-game sample. Target games where the line sits at 2.0 or higher for maximum value. The main risk is positive regression, but his contact-heavy approach suggests limited upside potential.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Westburg's Total Bases prop record all games?
Westburg's total bases record shows 25 overs and 54 unders across 79 games, hitting just 31.6% of over bets. His consistent underperformance has made under bets profitable at +30.5% ROI while overs lose money at -39.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Westburg Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Westburg's total bases props. His 1.76 average sits well below typical 2.17 lines, and under bets have generated +30.5% ROI over 79 games. The trend shows no signs of meaningful regression given his contact-heavy approach.
What's Jordan Westburg's average Total Bases all games?
Westburg averages 1.76 total bases per game compared to the typical 2.17 line, creating a -0.41 differential. This significant gap between performance and expectations drives the strong under value that has persisted across nearly 80 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Westburg total bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher for maximum edge. His contact-first approach makes him most reliable in any game situation, as the 79-game sample shows consistent underperformance regardless of context.