Jordan Westburg's home run prop presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, hitting over just 10 times in 79 games for a brutal 12.7% over rate. With an average of 0.13 home runs against a 0.5 line, the under has delivered massive +66.7% ROI while overs hemorrhage -75.8%. This is a clear under play.
Expert Analysis
Jordan Westburg's home run production reveals a fundamental disconnect between sportsbook pricing and reality. Averaging just 0.13 home runs per game against the standard 0.5 line creates a staggering -0.4 differential that has persisted across 79 games spanning two seasons. The 12.7% over rate isn't just poor—it's historically bad, suggesting either chronic overvaluation by oddsmakers or a player profile that simply doesn't support regular power output. Westburg's current 8-game under streak and a previous 22-game under streak demonstrate this isn't random variance but a systematic pattern. The longest over streak managed just one game, highlighting how rare his power spikes truly are. While young players can develop power suddenly, Westburg's track record shows consistent singles-and-doubles production rather than the fly ball profile needed for regular home runs. The +66.7% under ROI across nearly 80 games represents exceptional value sustainability, particularly when the alternative has lost bettors three-quarters of their investment. This level of consistency in underperformance relative to the line suggests either a market inefficiency or a player whose true talent level sits well below the 0.5 threshold that books continue to set.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Westburg's 12.7% over rate across 79 games represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, delivering +66.7% ROI while overs crater at -75.8%. The 0.37-home run gap between his average and the line is massive, and his power profile shows no signs of supporting regular long balls. Bet this under in any situation until the market corrects or his approach fundamentally changes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Westburg's Home Runs prop record all games?
Westburg is 10-69-0 on home run overs across 79 games, hitting the over just 12.7% of the time. This represents one of the worst over rates for any regular player prop in baseball, with unders cashing at an elite 87.3% clip.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Westburg Home Runs all games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Westburg averages just 0.13 home runs per game against a 0.5 line, creating a massive edge that has delivered +66.7% ROI while overs lose 75.8%. This is systematic underperformance, not variance.
What's Jordan Westburg's average Home Runs all games?
Westburg averages 0.13 home runs per game compared to the standard 0.5 line, creating a -0.37 differential. This gap represents nearly three times his actual production rate, explaining why unders hit 87.3% of the time across 79 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Westburg home run unders in any situation until the market adjusts. His power deficiency appears consistent regardless of conditions, with the longest over streak managing just one game while under streaks reach 22 games.