Jordan Hicks presents a modest edge on strikeout overs with an 8-7 record (53.3%) across 15 starts, though his 4.0 average trails the typical 4.37 line by 0.37 strikeouts. The positive 1.8% ROI on overs suggests slight value, warranting a lean over approach in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Jordan Hicks's strikeout profile reveals a pitcher caught between his stuff and his role. The 53.3% over rate masks a more complex reality — while Hicks has the velocity and slider combination to rack up strikeouts, his transition from reliever to starter has created inconsistency in his punch-out totals. The -0.37 differential between his 4.0 average and the standard 4.37 line suggests books may be overvaluing his strikeout ceiling based on his relief pedigree. The modest 1.8% ROI on overs indicates subtle market inefficiency rather than systematic mispricing. His strikeout variance appears tied to how deep he works into games, as his high-octane approach often leads to elevated pitch counts early. The recent under streak of one game following longer over streaks of three games suggests his strikeout production comes in waves rather than steady accumulation. Without detailed split data, the key becomes identifying games where Hicks can maintain his velocity deeper into starts, typically against teams with higher strikeout rates or when he's had extended rest. The lack of a significant sample size means each start carries more weight in establishing patterns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The slight historical edge combined with positive ROI on overs creates modest value, particularly when Hicks faces strikeout-prone lineups or has favorable rest patterns. The key risk remains his inconsistent workload as a converted reliever, which can limit his strikeout opportunities when pitch counts climb early. Target overs when he's facing teams in the top half of strikeout rate.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Hicks's Strikeouts prop record all games?
Jordan Hicks has gone over his strikeout prop in 8 of 15 games (53.3%) with a 7-8 under record. His average of 4.0 strikeouts per start shows modest consistency around the typical 4.37 betting line throughout the 2024 season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Hicks Strikeouts all games?
Lean over on Jordan Hicks strikeout props, especially against high-strikeout teams. The 53.3% over rate and positive 1.8% ROI on overs suggests slight value, though his converted reliever profile creates inconsistency that requires selective betting.
What's Jordan Hicks's average Strikeouts all games?
Jordan Hicks averages 4.0 strikeouts per start across 15 games, falling 0.37 strikeouts short of the typical 4.37 betting line. This differential suggests books may be overvaluing his strikeout potential based on his relief pitching background.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jordan Hicks strikeout overs when he faces teams with high strikeout rates and has adequate rest between starts. His converted reliever profile performs best with proper preparation, making rest days and opponent strikeout tendencies key timing factors.