Jonathan India has been a total bases disaster over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time while averaging 1.7 total bases against a 3.0 line. This -1.3 differential represents a massive 43% shortfall that's generated consistent under profits. The trend strongly favors betting unders.
Expert Analysis
India's total bases collapse stems from a perfect storm of offensive struggles that have persisted across multiple weeks. Averaging just 1.7 total bases against a 3.0 line isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance that suggests either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or a fundamental shift in his approach at the plate. The 70% under rate over 10 games creates a sample size that transcends small-sample noise, especially when considering the consistency of the failures. India's longest over streak was just two games, while he's strung together four consecutive unders, indicating this isn't random clustering but sustained poor performance. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose market line hasn't adjusted to his current reality. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the lack of obvious regression catalysts—no major lineup changes, no clear injury recovery timeline, and no dramatic shift in opposing pitching quality that would suggest imminent improvement. The Reds' late-season positioning may also factor into reduced urgency, though professional hitters typically don't mail it in this dramatically without underlying cause.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. India's 1.7 average against a 3.0 line represents a systematic breakdown that shows no signs of immediate reversal. The 70% under rate over 10 games creates value on the under, particularly when books haven't aggressively adjusted the line downward. Main risk is potential dead-cat bounce or lineup protection changes, but the consistency of failures suggests continued under value until we see concrete evidence of offensive revival.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan India's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
India has gone 3-7-0 over/under on his total bases prop in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. This represents one of the more lopsided trends in recent baseball props, with unders cashing at a 70% clip.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan India Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on India's total bases. His 1.7 average against typical 3.0 lines creates consistent value, and the 70% under rate over 10 games suggests books haven't properly adjusted to his current offensive struggles.
What's Jonathan India's average Total Bases last 10 games?
India has averaged just 1.7 total bases over his last 10 games, a full 1.3 bases below typical market lines around 3.0. This 43% shortfall represents systematic underperformance rather than normal variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target India total bases unders when lines remain at 3.0 or higher, particularly in day games or against quality pitching. Avoid when he faces weak bullpens or in potential blowout spots where garbage-time at-bats could inflate totals.