Jonathan India's home total bases props present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 30.2% overs across 43 games with a massive -0.6 differential versus the betting line. The under delivers +33.2% ROI while overs bleed -42.3%, creating a clear statistical edge for contrarian bettors.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of systematic line inflation on India's home total bases props. His 1.67 average sits significantly below the typical 2.27 line, suggesting oddsmakers consistently overvalue his offensive output at Great American Ball Park. This isn't a small sample fluke—across 43 games spanning over a year, India has failed to reach his total bases number nearly 70% of the time at home. The persistence of this trend indicates structural factors at play rather than random variance. Great American Ball Park's dimensions and conditions may suppress India's extra-base hit production, or perhaps the pressure of home crowds affects his aggressive approach. The streak data reinforces this pattern, with India's longest under streak reaching nine games compared to just three consecutive overs. Most telling is the ROI divergence: while overs hemorrhage money at -42.3%, unders generate solid profits at +33.2%. This suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to India's home struggles, creating ongoing value for sharp bettors willing to fade the public's natural over bias on a recognizable name.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 70% under rate combined with a -0.6 line differential creates exceptional value that the market continues to ignore. Target India's home total bases unders when the line sits at 2.0 or higher, as his 1.67 average provides substantial cushion. The primary risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but the sample size and consistency suggest this edge remains exploitable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 9.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan India's Total Bases prop record home games?
Jonathan India has gone 13-30-0 on total bases overs in home games, hitting just 30.2% of his overs across 43 games from June 2023 to September 2024, creating a strong under trend.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan India Total Bases home games?
Bet the UNDER on India's home total bases props. The 70% under rate and +33.2% ROI provide clear value, especially when lines are set at 2.0 or higher given his 1.67 home average.
What's Jonathan India's average Total Bases home games?
India averages 1.67 total bases in home games compared to the typical 2.27 line, creating a significant -0.6 differential that consistently favors under bettors seeking value in this market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target India's home total bases unders when facing quality pitching or when lines are inflated above 2.0. His pattern shows particular weakness during extended home stands when the trend intensifies.