Joey Wiemer's total bases props have hit the over in 60% of his last 10 games (6-4-0 record), averaging 1.5 total bases against typical 0.5 lines for a massive +1.0 differential. The over side shows +14.6% ROI, making this a clear lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Wiemer's total bases production reveals a young player finding his power stroke in limited opportunities. The 1.5 average against 0.5 lines represents a 300% performance rate, suggesting books are undervaluing his multi-base potential. This differential typically emerges when a player's underlying power metrics outpace public perception, creating consistent line value. The 60% over rate with positive ROI indicates sustainable edge rather than random variance. Wiemer's profile as a toolsy outfielder suggests legitimate extra-base ability that sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted for. The three-game over streak demonstrates recent momentum, while the longest under streak of just two games shows limited downside volatility. However, the small 10-game sample raises regression concerns, and Wiemer's inconsistent playing time could impact opportunities. The lack of split data prevents deeper situational analysis, but the raw numbers suggest books are pricing him as a singles hitter when his actual production skews toward doubles and occasional home runs. This creates exploitable value on over bets, particularly when he's getting regular starts.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Wiemer's 1.5 average against 0.5 lines creates substantial mathematical edge, supported by 60% over rate and positive ROI. The key factor is securing regular playing time, making lineup confirmation essential. Primary risk involves small sample regression and potential platoon usage limiting at-bats.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Joey Wiemer props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joey Wiemer's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Wiemer has gone over his total bases prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% over rate) with a 6-4-0 record. The over side has generated +14.6% ROI while unders have lost -23.6%, showing clear profitability favoring the over.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joey Wiemer Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the over on Wiemer's total bases props. His 1.5 average against typical 0.5 lines creates a massive +1.0 edge, supported by 60% over rate and positive ROI. Confirm he's starting before placing the wager.
What's Joey Wiemer's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Wiemer averages 1.5 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical 0.5 lines, creating a +1.0 differential. This 300% performance rate suggests books are significantly undervaluing his multi-base hitting ability and power potential.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Wiemer's total bases overs when he's confirmed in the starting lineup, particularly against right-handed pitching if splits become available. His recent three-game over streak suggests current momentum, making near-term opportunities most attractive for over bets.