Joey Wiemer's home run props present a compelling under opportunity with just 20% overs across his last 10 games and a devastating 0.2 average against a 0.5 line. The six-game under streak and -61.8% over ROI signal a clear edge. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Wiemer's home run production has been catastrophically below market expectations, hitting just two long balls across 10 games while books consistently set his line at 0.5. This 0.3 differential represents one of the largest gaps between actual production and market pricing you'll find in baseball props. The 20% over rate isn't just poor—it's historically bad for a player getting regular at-bats. What makes this trend particularly exploitable is the persistence factor. Wiemer's current six-game under streak suggests either a mechanical issue or books that haven't properly adjusted to his power outage. Young players like Wiemer often experience extended cold streaks as they adjust to major league pitching, and the sample size here indicates this isn't just variance. The -61.8% over ROI demonstrates how punishing this market has been for over bettors, while the +52.7% under ROI shows consistent profitability on the other side. Books appear slow to adjust, likely because Wiemer showed flashes of power in limited previous action. However, the reality is clear: he's not connecting for home runs at anywhere near the frequency the market suggests, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors until the line moves significantly lower.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.3 negative differential and 80% under rate create a clear mathematical edge that books haven't adequately addressed. Target this prop when the line remains at 0.5, as Wiemer's current power outage shows no signs of immediate regression. Main risk is a breakout game that could shift market perception, but the underlying data supports continued under production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joey Wiemer's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Wiemer has gone 2-8-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs with an average of 0.2 home runs per game against a typical 0.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joey Wiemer Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet under on Wiemer's home run props. The 80% under rate and massive -0.3 differential create a clear edge that books haven't properly adjusted for in their pricing.
What's Joey Wiemer's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Wiemer is averaging just 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, falling 0.3 below the standard 0.5 line—a significant gap indicating sustained power struggles.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wiemer home run unders when the line stays at 0.5 or higher, particularly in day games or against quality pitching where his power deficit becomes even more pronounced.