Joey Wiemer's home run prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 18.2% overs across 11 games. His 0.18 average sits 0.3 runs below the typical 0.5 line, generating +56.2% ROI on unders. The current six-game under streak reinforces this edge.
Expert Analysis
Wiemer's home run struggles reflect the harsh reality of a young player adjusting to MLB pitching. His 0.18 home run average against a standard 0.5 line creates immediate value, but the underlying factors suggest this isn't just variance. The 18.2% over rate across 11 games indicates consistent power deficiency rather than a temporary slump. His current six-game under streak, representing his longest stretch without a home run, aligns with broader contact and power development issues typical of rookie outfielders. The +56.2% ROI on unders demonstrates market inefficiency, as books likely overvalue his physical tools versus actual production. Wiemer's profile suggests a player still learning to turn raw power into game situations, particularly against advanced pitching that exploits his swing-and-miss tendencies. The lack of split data prevents deeper situational analysis, but his overall numbers paint a clear picture of a hitter who hasn't yet translated batting practice power into consistent game performance. This trend appears sustainable given his developmental stage and the typical learning curve for power production at the major league level.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Wiemer's 18.2% over rate and 0.3-run deficit to the standard line create exceptional value on unders. The six-game under streak reflects genuine power deficiencies rather than bad luck. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, as his 0.18 average provides significant cushion. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or limited playing time affecting sample reliability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-05-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joey Wiemer's Home Runs prop record all games?
Wiemer's home run prop record stands at 2-9-0 over/under across 11 games, translating to just 18.2% overs. His average of 0.18 home runs per game falls significantly short of standard 0.5 lines, creating a -0.3 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joey Wiemer Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Wiemer's home run props with high confidence. His 18.2% over rate and +56.2% under ROI create exceptional value. The six-game under streak reflects genuine power deficiencies, making unders the clear strategic play.
What's Joey Wiemer's average Home Runs all games?
Wiemer averages 0.18 home runs per game across his 11-game sample. This sits 0.3 runs below the typical 0.5 line, representing a significant 60% shortfall that creates immediate mathematical value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wiemer's home run unders when lines sit at 0.5, providing maximum cushion against his 0.18 average. His current developmental stage and six-game under streak suggest optimal conditions exist consistently rather than situationally.