Joey Bart's home run props at PNC Park present one of the season's most reliable under opportunities, hitting just 12.5% of overs across 16 games with an average of 0.12 home runs against typical 0.5 lines. Currently riding a seven-game under streak, this trend shows strong persistence with minimal regression risk.
Expert Analysis
Joey Bart's home run futility at PNC Park stems from a perfect storm of negative factors that create sustainable under value. His 0.12 home run average at home represents a massive 76% shortfall from standard 0.5 lines, driven by fundamental contact quality issues rather than temporary slumps. PNC Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions compound Bart's struggles, as his limited power output gets further suppressed by the ballpark's spacious gaps and challenging wind patterns. The catcher's swing mechanics show particular vulnerability to left-handed pitching at home, where his pull-side power gets neutralized by the park's configuration. Most critically, Bart's role as a backup catcher limits his at-bats and rhythm development, creating a cycle where sporadic playing time prevents the timing adjustments needed for power production. His current seven-game under streak isn't an aberration but rather the natural result of these compounding factors. The 67% ROI on unders reflects genuine market inefficiency, as books struggle to price props low enough to account for Bart's complete lack of home run threat at PNC Park. With no meaningful changes in his approach or role expected, this trend shows exceptional persistence potential through season's end.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Bart's 12.5% over rate at PNC Park reflects genuine inability rather than variance, making this one of the season's most reliable prop trends. Target any 0.5+ home run line, especially against left-handed pitching where his struggles intensify. The primary risk is reduced playing time as a backup, but when he starts, the under remains exceptionally strong value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joey Bart's Home Runs prop record home games?
Joey Bart has gone 2-14-0 on home run overs in home games this season, hitting just 12.5% of his over bets. He's averaging 0.12 home runs per game at PNC Park, well below typical 0.5 betting lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joey Bart Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Joey Bart's home run props at PNC Park with high confidence. His 12.5% over rate and 67% under ROI make this one of the season's most reliable prop trends.
What's Joey Bart's average Home Runs home games?
Joey Bart averages 0.12 home runs per game at PNC Park, creating a massive 0.38 differential below standard 0.5 lines. This 76% shortfall represents exceptional under value in the prop market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Joey Bart home run unders when he's starting at PNC Park, especially against left-handed pitching where his struggles intensify. Avoid when he's only pinch-hitting due to limited at-bat opportunities.