Joey Bart has been a consistent under performer in hits props, going just 3-7 over his last 10 games with a brutal -0.7 differential versus the 1.6 line. The under has delivered a strong 33.6% ROI while overs have hemorrhaged -42.7%. This presents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Joey Bart's hits props have been remarkably predictable, and not in a good way for over bettors. The Pirates catcher has managed just 0.9 hits per game against a consistent 1.6 line, creating a massive -0.7 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This isn't variance—it's a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and reality. Bart's 30% over rate tells the story of a player whose offensive profile has been consistently overvalued by oddsmakers. The sample size of 10 games provides meaningful data, especially for a catcher whose playing time and offensive opportunities are more predictable than position players with varying roles. The 33.6% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, while the devastating -42.7% loss rate on overs shows how badly books have misjudged Bart's current form. His longest under streak of 4 games suggests sustained struggles, while his longest over streak maxed at just 2 games. The current 1-game over streak feels more like a brief interruption than a trend reversal. Bart's catching duties likely contribute to fatigue that impacts his offensive production, creating a structural edge for under bettors that the market hasn't fully recognized.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.7 differential and 70% under rate create a compelling mathematical edge, while the 33.6% ROI on unders shows clear market mispricing. Target this when Bart faces quality pitching or in day games after night games where catcher fatigue becomes a factor. The main risk is regression to his career norms, but current form suggests continued struggles at the plate.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joey Bart's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Joey Bart has gone 3-7 on hits overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. He's averaging 0.9 hits per game against a typical 1.6 line, creating a -0.7 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joey Bart Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Joey Bart's hits props. The 70% under rate and 33.6% ROI on unders shows clear value, while overs have lost -42.7%. His 0.9 average versus 1.6 lines creates a significant mathematical edge.
What's Joey Bart's average Hits last 10 games?
Joey Bart is averaging 0.9 hits per game over his last 10 contests, well below the typical 1.6 line. This -0.7 differential represents substantial underperformance and creates consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Joey Bart hits unders when he faces quality starting pitching or in day games following night games. Catcher fatigue and his current -0.7 differential make these spots particularly profitable for under bettors.